Yes, they say that there recent timber prices have shown a rising trend and that it indicates that perhaps timber prices have bottomed but do I see enough strong reasoning that suggest that timber prices should surge?

So I guess this is called realised ah?

Now about the fact that Ta Ann boss said that plywood prices HAD rebounded since last year low of US370 in Aug-Sep 2007.

So why isn't there improvement in earnings from Ta Ann?

2. It is fact Cymao is not making  profit at the moment but it is making alot of cash. In addition going forward it will generate even more cash bcos there are inventories Rm 0.70 per share & depreciation equivalent to Rm 0.15 per share ( upto Rm 1.00) can be converted to cash as well. Even we take the very conservative scenario that Cymao does not make a single sen profits for the next 6 years, there is additional cash per share of Rm 1.80 in the balance sheet compare to the share price of Rm 0.70. This situation indicate extreme value & margin of safety !

Is this called making a lot cash? Collection of debts woh! Collectiion of previous debts owed woh! This is making cash meh? If the company is more well managed, it should had been collected long ago.

3. In addition the management shows uncanny ability to collect receivable which is extreme good, which i find this is really a rare ability compare with other listed share in bursa. Thus the management should deserve a premium.

Deserve a premium for collecting its PAST debts?

4.Based on the good cashflow, strong management, strong balance sheet ,very good margin of safety of over 50% and the facts that timber prices has turnaround, i derive the conclusion of good buy at Rm 0.70. For me i, invest in value of business and with sufficint margin of safety & whether timber price will have a bull run, thats is only a complementary facts & a bonus if it happened !

5. Yes u feel uneasy when i challenge u with my alternative arguement but this is the only way to go about it if we are genuine to our opinion ! No doubt u got half the fact right on P & L but by not  looking into overall financial & business of cashflow & balance sheet aspect i see the weaknesses in your conclusion

Hmmm... I got half correct?

OK.. i guess I am wrong. I guess I am wrong that I pointed out to you why Cymao cash flow had been showing positve recently. Sorry lah. Where was that posting again?

6. Finally time will tell whether which analysis is correct or not & i use 31-12-2008 bcos this will give a reasonable time for the positive attributes of the investment to come out.  

Such a big issue to challenge me meh? Why ah? Didn't you said last nite that "Whether u get the analyses right or wrong is irrelevant ! " And didn't you say that my analysis is only half right on your point 5? So what's the big fuss? Is it so important that you win against someone who has a half right analysis?

Ok... tell you what... you win.

Happy?



7. Put it this way since u feel strongly on your opinion & me the same, this is the only way to draw conclusion !

If you feel correct, go buy man. Stock is below 70 sen. Go buy by the container load. And if you right, you will be super duper rich. Maybe you can belanja me BBQ Crabs.

Me?

I am half right woh...



Half right means half wrong, no?

So if I am half wrong, you still want to draw conclusion meh?

8. I don't feel any wrong to challenge your opinion bcos this is the only way ! We should dare to face the challenge.

WoW! Challenge here and there!

Aiseh... you won the challenge already woh!

9. Just imagine u have make alot of strong opinion on timber industry & cymao if it turn up to be a wrong conclusion make, don't u want to improve & avoid it in future ?

If I am wrong, it's no problem for me man.

Tomorrow I would wake up and make another wrong decision loh.

I can live with it woh.

10 Finally alot of people rely on your good analysis & advice to help in their investment assessment including 'Yours truly' hence it is of national interest u are at your best & correct any weaknesses if any. Although u may disagree with this conclusion but this actually a fact. Anyway we subsribe to maxim that we must do our own analysis b4 we place our bets hence u cannot faulted even u r wrong hence do not get so up tight. 

Wahhh.... national interest now?