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Moolah
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Posting #21: Wed Jul 23rd, 2008 07:45 |
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Ouccccccccccch!
ijmp now 3.02.
LOL! See need more such tembak-tembak! 
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wanderer
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Posting #22: Wed Jul 23rd, 2008 12:03 |
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Don’t Try to Predict the Future / Be In Harmony with the Market / Don’t fight the Market ~Charlie Wright
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Moolah
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Posting #23: Wed Jul 23rd, 2008 13:04 |
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FCPO at lowest this year... *cough* .... dun see how to NOT to respect taikor!
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Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends At Lowest Level Yet In 2008
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower for the sixth successive trading day Wednesday - and at their lowest level of the year as investors liquidated longs and established short positions, taking leads from weak soyoil and crude oil prices.
Reduced Indonesian palm oil export taxes that go into effect next month have also had a sobering effect on prices.
The benchmark October contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 7%, or MYR225, lower at MYR3,027 a metric ton.
It was a day of heavy CPO trading - more than double the daily average of around 10,000 lots.
A total of 21,970 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD, up from 12,575 lots Tuesday. Open interest stood at 59,115 lots, up from 56,733 lots. One lot comprises 25 tons.
Rising palm oil stocks in Malaysia, declining global crude oil prices and expectations of large sales of Argentine soyoil have put downward pressure on prices, said Lim Sin Huat, business development manager at Ditali Bhd., a Malaysia-based trading company.
But prices seem to be trying to find a bottom, he said, as crude palm oil's discount to soyoil recently widened to nearly $250/ton.
Traders expect the lowest prices in nearly seven months to revive demand in the physical market.
Fund managers had artificially jacked up the prices of soyoil and crude oil and now, with both commodities falling, CPO futures are following suit, said an executive at Pan Century Edible Oils.
He said prices may stabilize around MYR2,950-MYR3,000 unless crude oil prices continue their backslide.
"It's not only demand and supply that's affecting prices, but also psychological factors that are prompting selling," said an executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage.
"Investors are uncertain over the level at which the market may get support, so they are reluctant to go long," said a broker in Singapore.
Instead they have set up short positions leading to a marked increase in open interest on BMD, which is nearly 50% higher than it was a month ago.
Traders said Malaysia's palm oil export figures for July 1-25 - to be released by cargo surveyors Friday - and trends in prices of soyoil and crude oil will determine the near-term downside potential for CPO futures.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery settled $3.09, or 2.4%, lower Tuesday at $127.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest settlement price since June 5. The new front-month September contract is trading more than $2 lower, at around $126/barrel, in electronic trading on Nymex.
December soyoil finished 25 points higher Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade, at 61.50 cents/pound. At 1045 GMT, December soyoil was trading 136 points lower on e-CBOT at 60.14 cents.
Cash palm olein for October/November/December traded at $1085/ton, $1080 and $1075, said a Singapore-based trader.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was last offered MYR180 lower at MYR3,120/ton.
(Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT)
Month Close Previous Change High Low
Aug 08 3,050 3,252 Dn 202 3,184 3,050
Sep 08 3,035 3,237 Dn 202 3,207 2,970
Oct 08 3,027 3,252 Dn 225 3,211 3,027
Nov 08 2,980 3,249 Dn 269 3,210 2,980 |
[code]
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Moolah
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Posting #24: Thu Jul 24th, 2008 01:53 |
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Palm oil upcycle not over, says Goldman
Published: 2008/07/24
INVESTORS should buy PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia and Sime Darby Bhd after their recent drop as palm oil stocks remain attractive and prices for the commodity may gain, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said.
Prices for palm oil may rise up to 20 per cent this year on demand for biofuels and a potential rebound in crude oil, Goldman analysts Patrick Tiah and Nikhil Bhandari said in a report yesterday.
"Palm oil biodiesel is still profitable and we expect rising utilisation rates to boost palm oil demand," the analysts wrote. "There is upside potential for crude palm oil (CPO) prices due to extremely low inventories."
CPO's 13 per cent retreat from a record US$147.27 (RM477) on July 11 sparked a sell-off in plantation stocks in the region on concern lower prices will sap the appeal of palm oil as an alternative fuel. Merrill Lynch & Co and Morgan Stanley have said investors should sell commodities stocks because demand may decline.
Perusahaan Perkebunan is Goldman's top pick while Sime Darby, the largest listed palm oil producer, offers the most attractive price-to-earnings valuations, the report said. "Wilmar International Ltd is a longer-term core holding," it said.
Perusahaan Perkebunan has fallen 33 per cent in one month, Sime Darby 13 per cent and Wilmar 17 per cent.
"A pullback in crude oil prices sparked a broader selldown of commodities-related stocks," the report said. "The palm oil upcycle is not over." - Bloomberg
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random
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Posting #25: Thu Jul 24th, 2008 03:22 |
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Moolah wrote: random wrote: Oooi tak buleh cabut half way 1.
fcpo is now down how many points????
i can hold and hope... but that wud downright pathetic, no?
Smartypants.. .. Lets see how far it'll descend.. some spot of hunting at 2800? 
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Moolah
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Posting #26: Thu Jul 24th, 2008 04:00 |
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Like that also called smartie pants ah?
Now that fcpo is up... it would take a real smartie pants to know if this upside is sustainable or not!!!
Me? I shall retreat to the sidelines.
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random
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Posting #27: Thu Jul 24th, 2008 04:36 |
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Moolah wrote: Like that also called smartie pants ah?
Now that fcpo is up... it would take a real smartie pants to know if this upside is sustainable or not!!!
Me? I shall retreat to the sidelines.
How to make money like that? 
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Moolah
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Posting #28: Thu Jul 24th, 2008 04:45 |
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When ths situation does not allow it.. how? sit and pray and hope for the best?
at least my entry and exit in this recent scenario, did allow some lalang money. How? complain too little ah?
and if u ask me... looking back at it now.... given the variables.. it was huge risk for the entry.
Last edited on Thu Jul 24th, 2008 04:48 by Moolah
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Moolah
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Posting #29: Thu Jul 24th, 2008 06:06 |
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Posted on Star Biz...
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Thursday July 24, 2008
Drop in crude oil price pulls down CPO
By YVONNE TAN
PETALING JAYA: Crude oil prices fell to their lowest in more than a month yesterday even as the US Congress planned to curb excessive speculation, but analysts believe demand for the commodity will continue to be strong.
The fall in the crude oil price also dragged down the crude palm oil (CPO) price, which tumbled to a seven-month low of RM3,027 a tonne.
The decline in the CPO price was also due to higher soyoil output as well as a slowdown in purchase by China, leading to record high inventory.
In a report yesterday, Bloomberg said the US Congress was studying plans to outlaw elements of oil futures trading which lawmakers found “distorted” demand and contributed to the surge in prices in the past year.
It also quoted Petroleos Mexicanos chief executive officer Jesus Reyes Heroles as saying that excluding the effect of speculation, oil would be around US$80 a barrel.
This is about 37% below the price of US$126.59 a barrel as at 5pm yesterday. On July 11, crude oil briefly jumped past the record US$147 level.
TA Securities head of research Kaladher Govindan said that robust demand from Asian countries would continue to keep prices steady.
He expected oil prices to hit US$160 per barrel in the third quarter on continued weakening of the US dollar, supply shocks and strong demand.
“Prices may retreat after that on global recessionary fears, strengthening of the US dollar post potential increase in the Federal Reserve’s target rate, and possible intervention of the US government in the futures market,” he said.
But even if the US economy entered into a recession, he does not expect oil prices to dip below US$70 per barrel as demand from Asian countries were very strong.
TA’s forecast average crude oil prices for this year and 2009 are US$115 and US$100 per barrel respectively.
RAM Rating Services Bhd industrial products and services ratings manager Thong Mun Wai said the price of crude oil was expected to remain on the uptrend as global supply struggled to keep pace with demand.
This, according to Thong, is largely attributed to delays in the commissioning of new production capacity caused by shortages of rigs, marine support vessels and technical personnel as well as the lack of access to reserves controlled by national oil companies.
“Global demand for oil is expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace, supported by consumption in emerging economies like China, India and the Middle East,” he said.
Nevertheless, Thong said prices were expected to remain volatile due to speculative activity in the futures markets as well as concerns over geo-political events which could disrupt supply.
He forecast oil prices to be around US$110 to US$130 per barrel by the end of the year with an upside bias should the supply situation worsen.
As for CPO prices, OSK analyst Alvin Tai noted that there was some recovery in the July exports to China but probably not enough to halt the rise in the inventory level.
“In the near term, the CPO price will trend lower until the inventory level stops rising. That’ll happen when China’s purchase returns to the usual 320,000 to 350,000 tonnes per month,” he said.
China bought only 235,000 tonnes from Malaysia in June.
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MooFassa
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Posting #30: Tue Jul 29th, 2008 13:07 |
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0829 GMT [Dow Jones] Plantation stocks among top Malaysia losers; subindex down 1.3% at 6297.78 vs KLCI down 0.6% at 1147.35; this after October crude palm oil futures falls below MYR2900/ton to MYR2865/ton on expectations of high output , fall in soy oil prices. Among decliners, Asiatic (2294.KU) down 3.1% at MYR6.20, Kulim (2003.KU) down 1.9% at MYR7.90, IOI Corp (1961.KU) down 1.8% at MYR5.60 and Kwantas (6572.KU) down 3.2% at MYR3.04. (VGB)
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Asia CPO Ends Lower On Oversupply Concerns;Soyoil
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange continued to decline Tuesday, falling 4.7% to break below MYR2,900 a metric ton for the first time in 2008, on expectations of a sharp rise in output and spillover weakness in soyoil, said trade participants.
They said expectations of China selling vegetable oils from its reserves in the domestic market, long liquidation by small investors, and speculative selling also contributed to the fall in prices.
The benchmark October contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR32 lower at MYR2,969 a metric ton in volatile trading, off an intraday low of MYR2,861, a level that was last touched on Dec. 12.
London-based commodities analyst James Fry had forecast in February that CPO prices could fall towards MYR2,900/ton by August this year.
However, prices recovered after Malaysia's commodities minister, Peter Chin said late afternoon that the government will assess the price trends, take steps to reduce stocks if necessary, and discuss inventory levels with Indonesia, the other major palm oil producer.
"We have to assess the situation and see whether high stocks are the reason for fall in prices. If there is an overstocking situation, we will try to work towards reducing stocks for both countries," Chin said on the sidelines of an official function.
Earlier, there was selling in all major vegetable oils markets during the Asian trading hours including the electronic session on the Chicago Board of Trade and China's Dalian Commodity Exchange.
"Weakness in soyoil is leading to more selling pressure," said a trader in Singapore.
December soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade ended 15 points higher Monday at 60.60 cents/pound.
At 0915 GMT, December soyoil was trading 116 points lower on e-CBOT at 59.44 cents.
"When prices broke below MYR3,300/ton (last week), analysts projected that prices could reach closer to MYR2,800," said S. Paramalingam, executive director of Malaysia-based commodities brokerage Pelindung Bestari Bhd.
He said prices may now find a base, consolidate and retrace from current levels.
"If soyoil on CBOT closes lower tonight, BMD CPO futures may test MYR2900 again," said a trader in Singapore.
He said fundamentals are weak due to expectations of rise in Malaysia's palm oil output by 15%-20% on month in July.
Paramalingam said trading seems to have digressed from fundamentals and is now more driven more by speculation.
He said Malaysia's palm oil output is unlikely to increase by more than 5% this month while exports are projected to rise by 20%-25%.
A total of 19,096 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD, up from 11,148 lots Monday. Open interest stood at 57,925 lots, up from 56,284 lots. One lot comprises 25 tons.
Cash palm olein for October/November/December traded at $1,020/ton and $1,025/ton, said a trader in Singapore.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was last offered MYR60 lower at MYR3,040/ton.
Month Close Previous Change High Low
Aug 08 3,000 3,055 Dn 55 3,003 2,885
Sep 08 2,969 3,001 Dn 32 3,016 2,865
Oct 08 2,969 3,001 Dn 32 3,017 2,861
Nov 08 2,986 3,001 Dn 15 3,014 2,865 |
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