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MooFassa
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Posting #41: Mon Aug 11th, 2008 08:54 |
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11-08-2008: CPO bracing for a downcycle
By Lim Shie-Lynn
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil’s (CPO) near-term outlook remains bleak following tumbling of prices last week amid a global selldown in commodities, indicating that the sector is heading for a downcycle.
Although sentiments have become increasingly bearish for the plantation sector, analysts said the sharp selldown in the commodity was rather unexpected.
“We were surprised at the rate CPO prices have come down. Prices of palm oil may ease to the RM2,500 level earlier than expected as palm oil appears to be falling with the price of crude oil,” a plantation analyst said.
The benchmark October CPO delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell RM66 to RM2,779 a tonne last Friday as price of crude oil remained sluggish. Crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at US$118.05 as at 5.45pm last Friday.
The analyst initially forecast that the downcycle for plantations would only kick in towards the end of next year or even at the start of 2010.
“However, it appears that the downtrend has started earlier. We find that CPO prices would be trading at a low, unless crude oil price rallies.”
“Prices cannot remain high at all times and people should not be so afraid if the CPO goes into a downcycle, as this is all part of the commodity cycle,” TH Plantations Bhd managing director Datuk Rashidi Omar told The Edge Financial Daily.
According to industry consensus, the CPO is expected to trade lower only from 2010, as new plantings in the past two years would be coming onstream. Indonesia also expects its plantings to come onstream in the next two years, boosting supplies of palm oil in the market.
“With the speed of CPO prices coming down, it would not be surprising if CPO price could eventually trade as low as RM2,000 a tonne. This is also taking into consideration that crude oil would be trading lower and an ease in demand for edible oils,” the analyst said.
Analysts have even forecast the price of crude oil to dip to US$100 a barrel. The plantation analyst has downgraded the sector to an underweight.
“Most of the plantation stocks under our coverage are at a sell call, save for IOI Corporation Bhd and IJM Plantations Bhd.”
“We favour these stocks as both companies maintain a selling forward policy for its CPO. These companies could be better off than plantation firms which are selling palm oil at spot prices,” the analyst said.
He said integrated plantation plays like IOI Corp could weather a decline in CPO prices as its earnings stream were diversified.
The contrarian view opines that CPO prices would trade above RM2,500 despite the selldown last week.
Foreign research firm Credit Suisse maintains an overweight call on the sector as palm oil exports would be on a rebound on higher export figures to China.
“Year-to-date, Malaysian palm oil exports to China had risen 19.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), while exports in July grew 50.1% and 68.2% month-on-month.
This could be the start of the Malaysian palm oil export recovery,” Tan Ting Min said.
Credit Suisse maintains its overweight call on plantation stocks and maintains buy calls on Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) and Sime Darby Bhd.
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Posting #42: Tue Aug 12th, 2008 05:17 |
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Tuesday August 12, 2008 MYT 11:50:36 AM
CPO price forecast maintained at RM2,500
KUALA LUMPUR: Aseambankers Equity Research is maintaining its average crude palm oil (CPO) price outlook of RM2,500 per tonne next year and its expectations for 2008 at RM3,000.
In a report released on Tuesday, it said CPO prices had averaged RM3,460 per tonne year-to-date and it was maintaining its view that CPO prices were likely to peak this year and trade at more sustainable levels in 2009.
“Further, the present domestic political landscape is also reducing the attractiveness of ringgit-related investments like CPO, capping its upside potential,” it said.
Aseambankers Research said it was reviewing its plantation sector call after the recent sell-down in plantation stocks.
“Battered large caps like KL Kepong and Asiatic are good long term bets but small caps could be sidelined should the plantation sector return to favour in the near term.
“A risk to our view is the continuous unwinding of speculative positions by hedge funds and commodity funds that could temporarily push down prices of commodity like crude oil and soy oil which, in turn, places downside pressure on CPO price and plantation stocks below their fundamental values,” it said.
The research house said Malaysia’s July CPO inventory level closed at 1.98 million tonnes, below the historic 2.04 million tonne mark in June. It said the inventory level was below its expectations.
The factors for the falling inventory level were because of the export growth to 1.4 million tonnes (25.2% on-month, 26.4% on-year) while production rose only 6.2% on-month to 1.56 million tonnes (up 15.0% on-year).
It said the surge in exports was due to higher demand from China, which saw July’s export at 417,907 tonnes (up 78% on-month or an increase of 182,957 tonnes).
On the inventory for August, it said Malaysia’s inventory could range between 1.98 million to 2.07 million tonnes.
“At 1.98m tonnes, we maintain our view that CPO inventories remain adequate. Entering the high production season, inventory levels could re-challenge June’s 2.04 million tonne record high sometime between August and October,” it said.
Aseambankers said in the medium term, Indonesia’s mass planting programme, which averaged 319,000 ha per annum from 2001-06 should reach full maturity over the next two years and result in a surge in CPO production
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Posting #43: Wed Aug 13th, 2008 02:40 |
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Why palm oil price is falling
Published: 2008/08/13
The plunge in palm oil futures prices is directly linked to falling soyabean prices, says Cargill Asia Pacific regional director
THE fall in the price of palm oil boils down to a question of supply and demand, futures traders and industry executives said.
They disagreed that the decline should be directly linked to the drop in crude oil prices, widely blamed for sparking a sell-down in commodity prices globally.
The price of palm oil traded in the futures market has been falling due to an oversupply of vegetable oils worldwide.
Yesterday, the third month benchmark palm oil futures closed at RM2,561 per tonne, 43 per cent off from its record high of RM4,486 per tonne in March.
This in turn weighed on share prices of palm oil producers like IOI Corp Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. Since the start of the year, the Kuala Lumpur plantation index has tumbled by 36 per cent.
Investors are selling their stocks because they worry that future earnings would fall due to lower palm oil prices. The slide has taken its toll on the broader market as plantation stocks make up about one fifth of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI). Since April, the KLCI has lost some 200 points or 15 per cent.
"The plunge in FCPO (palm oil futures) prices is directly linked to falling soyabean prices," said Cargill Asia Pacific regional director Paul Conway.
At the Chicago Board of Trade, soyabean has lost 29 per cent in value since its historic high of US$16.63 (RM55.37) per bushel notched on July 3.
The prices of palm oil and soyabeans tend to move together because they are near-perfect substitutes. They are commonly used to make cooking oil, margarine, detergent and cosmetics.
Conway attributed the recent plunge in FCPO prices to oversupply and too little demand for palm oil.
"The oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia are producing more than usual and the increasing supply is building up stock levels," he told Business Times in a recent interview. Cargill owns and manages some 100,000ha of oil palm plantations in Indonesia.
A stronger US dollar has also made it worse. The dollar has gained 6.3 per cent over the last four months.
"A stronger US dollar didn't just hammer crude oil, it also pounded all other commodities. Lately, crude oil has fallen by 23 per cent but palm oil plunged 43 per cent," said a palm oil dealer with a futures broker in Kuala Lumpur.
He explained that a stronger dollar makes commodities like palm oil expensive to investors. When buyers have to pay more, the demand for palm oil decreases and that forces the price to come down.
"It is a double whammy!" the dealer said.
He estimated that in the days ahead, there would be more selling than buying of FCPO because good weather conditions in America will boost supply of soyabeans.
"Soyabean prices are expected to slide further. Since palm oil moves in lockstep with soyabean, you can expect the same," he said.
But there are also those who blame big funds for erratic price movements.
"The sudden plunge in FCPO is very much contributed by short selling. Since the run-up in the prices, there is not much room for speculators to make money. So, they bet on falling prices and the shorting triggered a stampede among all of us to short cover," said a trader with a specialty fats producer.
Attachment: cpo13.jpg (Downloaded 33 times)
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MooFassa
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Posting #44: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 13:10 |
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Palm Oil Buyers Default, Seek Discount On 1.0M Tons
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Bearing the brunt of a steep fall in prices, palm oil buyers are backing out of earlier contracts, and shipments of around 1.0 million metric tons from Indonesia and Malaysia are either facing default or are being discounted heavily, trade executives said Friday.
"The bulk of the defaulted or discounted shipments are for India, China and Pakistan," said a Jakarta-based trading executive, adding they were mostly contracted for August to December shipment.
Many shipments have left the port of origin, but the destination is still uncertain due to the default in contracts.
Traders said such shipments are estimated at least 400,000 tons for India and 500,000 tons for China.
Palm oil prices in the cash market have fallen by around $400/ton, or 33%, in the last two months amid a global selloff in commodities.
"Cargoes are being shipped out to avoid demurrage and dead freight, even without lines of credit being opened by buyers," said the Jakarta-based trader.
Stocks can't be accumulated indefinitely and have to be exported, said an official at a Malaysia-based palm oil manufacturing and trading company.
Malaysia's end-July palm oil stocks are estimated at 1.98 million tons, close to an all-time high of 2.0 million tons.
He said cargoes have been heavily discounted from their original price.
Some traders said the renegotiated price is $300/ton cheaper from the original deals.
"After today's drastic fall in prices, traders are asking for further discounts," said the Jakarta-based trading executive.
Importers argue that it isn't possible for them to honor the original contracts because their local customers have backed out on their deals.
"It is a chain reaction, an importer sells CPO to refiner who processes it and sells it to local traders who in turn sell it to retailers. The entire supply line has been disturbed by the sharp fall in prices," said a Mumbai-based importer.
He said amicable "washing out" of costlier traded contracts of palm oil is the only solution to the current situation where there has been a steep fall in prices.
He said both sides could bear around 50% of the losses in such cases, based on the price differential between the original and the current price.
Traders said such settlements depend on one-on-one negotiations and vary from case to case.
"The fall in prices is so large that washing out with a penalty for the buyer is very difficult. Most contracts have just to be renegotiated at the current lower price," said a Pakistan-based importer.
Traders said the total volumes shipped out from Indonesia and Malaysia are still high, but the price at which it is being exported is getting renegotiated several times due to the downslide in the market.
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MooFassa
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Posting #45: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 09:04 |
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CPO futures at one-year low on default fears
Published: 2008/08/18
The market is in a panic mode because there is no knowing when India and China will start defaulting this week, says a trader
MALAYSIAN crude palm oil futures fell 1.8 per cent today to hit a one-year low, despite firmer commodity prices, on talk that Asia buyers will continue to default on cargoes.
Palm oil prices have slid 20.2 per cent this year and have nearly halved from the March peak on a knock-out combination of high stocks, news of defaults from China and India as well as weak commodity markets.
The benchmark crude palm oil November contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell RM44 to RM2,408 (US$723) a tonne. By midday, the contract was trading down RM18.
“The market is in a panic mode because there is no knowing when India and China will start defaulting this week,” said a trader from India.
“With prices going down further, more default news will come in and this adds to the worry that stocks in Malaysia are going to overflow.”
Other traded months fell between RM19 and RM21. Overall trade was 4,632 lots of 25 tonnes each.
Buyers from China and India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importers, have cancelled or renegotiated around 800,000 tonnes of palm oil deals in the past few weeks as prices slump, dealers said last week.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug 1-15 recovered, rising as much as 30 per cent to roughly 630,000 tonnes but will still not be enough to soak up stocks which hovered near record levels.
Oil rose over US$1 to near US$115 a barrel today as investors eyed a potential supply threat from Tropical storm Fay to oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The most-active January 2009 soyoil contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up but September soyoil at the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.9 per cent during Asia trading.
Indonesian markets were closed today for a national holiday.
In the physical market, crude palm oil for delivery in August was called at RM2,440/RM2,450 a tonne in southern Malaysia. Trades were done between RM2,450 and RM2,470. - Reuters
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MooFassa
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Posting #46: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 10:20 |
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Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (2445.KU) - Malaysia
3rd quarter ended June 30:
Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
2008 2007
Revenue 2,029,069,000 1,351,719,000
Pretax Profit 364,210,000 193,698,000
Net Profit 245,360,000 148,009,000
Earnings Per Share 23.04 Sen 13.90 Sen
Dividend Omitted Omitted
9 months ended June 30:
Revenue 5,704,129,000 3,558,571,000
Pretax Profit 1,077,085,000 559,387,000
Net Profit 773,151,000 430,818,000
Earnings Per Share 72.60 Sen 40.45 Sen
Dividend 15.00 Sen 10.00 Sen |
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previous quarter...
Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (2445.KU) - Malaysia
2nd quarter ended Mar. 31:
Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
2008 2007
Revenue 1,895,549,000 1,034,865,000
Pretax Profit 340,259,000 171,466,000
Net Profit 236,655,000 126,697,000
Earnings Per Share 22.22 Sen 11.90 Sen
Dividend 15.00 Sen 10.00 Sen
6 months ended Mar. 31:
Revenue 3,675,060,000 2,206,852,000
Pretax Profit 712,875,000 365,689,000
Net Profit 527,791,000 282,809,000
Earnings Per Share 49.56 Sen 26.56 Sen
Dividend 15.00 Sen 10.00 Sen |
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MooFassa
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Posting #47: Tue Aug 26th, 2008 01:17 |
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Palm oil price taking a breather: Experts
By Ooi Tee Ching Published: 2008/08/26
THE palm oil price is taking a breather due to a peak harvest season but will resume their rise as demand picks up, industry experts said.
Yesterday, the third month benchmark crude palm oil price on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange fell RM115 to close at RM2,600 per tonne.
“The market is oversold and I would say we’re in transition. I may be mistaken but I’m convinced the bull run is not yet over. We still have a couple of years more to go,” said Godrej International Ltd director Dorab Mistry.
Changing weather patterns could also affect yields of soyabean in the US and grains in India.
“The US Department of Agriculture had over-estimated August rainfall in the US and there is still a question mark on the soya-bean yield,” he said.
If the production of soyabean falls, its prices could rise. This in turn, could also boost the palm oil price as both are a near perfect substitutes. Both are used to make cooking oil, margarine, detergent and cosmetics.
“These development are giving support to palm oil prices,” he told a hall full of more than 500 participants at the International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2008 held in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
In a separate session, the Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) told reporters that defaults of palm oil shipments to India and China are not massive. At most, it is only around 80,000 tonnes.
The trade body said recent news reports of exaggerated defaults has cause unnecessary panic and further price plunge in the palm oil futures market.
“Certainly, there are some defaults. I’ve checked with all our members and we find that it is not to the extent of 800,000 or one million tonnes ... that is impossible,” said Poram acting chairman Yong Chin Fatt.
Defaults occur when buyers do not want to honour a contract when prices fall too much too fast and vice versa for sellers.
In today’s context, Yong said Malaysia's palm oil trading with India or China is already quite established and developed.
“We sometimes wonder whether the exaggeration is done intentionally (by people who have vested interests) to cause distress in the market and push down the price further,” he said.
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Posting #48: Tue Aug 26th, 2008 07:24 |
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26-08-2008: Palm oil defaults not severe, says Poram
by Lim Shie-Lynn
KUALA LUMPUR: The default of some palm oil cargoes meant for China and India in the past few weeks following a slump in crude palm oil (CPO) prices was not as severe as reported, the Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) acting chairman Yong Chin Fatt said.
"There have been some defaults or deferment of palm oil shipments, but a default of 800,000 tonnes to one million tonnes of palm oil is impossible. This could be an intention by certain parties to depress the market," he said.
India and China, both major buyers of edible oils, were reported to have cancelled or deferred the shipment of around 800,000 tonnes of palm oil in the past few weeks as the price of the commodity nosedived on Aug 15 to RM2,392 a tonne on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives.
The price of crude palm oil has lost around 42% from its record high of RM4,486 a tonne in March.
While Yong admitted there were some defaults of palm oil shipments, he said the cancellation had not "reached a stage of massive defaults".
"Most of the palm oil buyers are established customers. Hence what we are seeing is a rescheduling of the shipments. Instead of large shipments, they would be spread over a few months, resulting in a smaller shipment of palm oil," he said on the sidelines of the Second International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2008 (POTS 2008) here yesterday.
According to an earlier Reuters report, importers had defaulted on about 300,000 tonnes of palm oil, while deals involving some 500,000 tonnes were renegotiated, with traders paying a lower price than what was initially agreed on.
Buyers from China were reported to have defaulted on some 40,000 tonnes of refined bleached deodorised palm olein cargo on Aug 15, while Indian buyers had backed out from purchases of close to 200,000 tonnes of edible oils following the slump in market prices.
"Malaysia is a major exporter of palm oil to China while India buys palm oil from Indonesia. Therefore I do not think the defaults were as severe as reported," Yong said.
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Posting #49: Tue Aug 26th, 2008 07:25 |
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26-08-2008: CPO seen at RM2,200 if oil stabilises at US$100
by Lim Shie-Lynn
KUALA LUMPUR: The price of crude palm oil (CPO) must decline to RM2,200 a tonne in the next few weeks for demand to rebound, said Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.
"At present the market is a deadly cocktail of rising supply-and-demand distortion. Although the markets are oversold, we would see a bounce due to ideal weather (in major agricultural crop-producing regions). At that level (RM2,200), we should see strong demand growth," Mistry said at the Second International Palm Oil Trade Fair & Seminar 2008 here yesterday.
As CPO is a feedstock for biodiesel, its prices have been tracking the price of crude oil, against which it competes.
Oil was trading at US$115.42 (RM390.12) a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 5.40pm yesterday, while the benchmark CPO contract for October delivery was trading at RM2,590 a tonne, down RM136, on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives.
Mistry also said his forecast of CPO prices reaching RM4,500 a tonne by February next year has been scrapped as the commodity continues to dip after soaring to more than RM4,400 a tonne.
"I must confess that my medium forecast was overly optimistic, I got the market wrong," said the director of Godrej International Ltd.
Although high output has depressed palm oil prices in the last few months, Mistry said it was the sell-off in Chinese vegetable oil markets due to better rapeseed and soybean crops that sparked the downward spiral in palm oil prices.
China's rapeseed crop in 2008 rose about three million tonnes to an estimated 11 million tonnes, data has shown.
"This explains why the domestic market in China is oversupplied and suffering from indigestion. The soybean crop in China is also better than expected and with good weather, should be in an excess of 18 million tonnes," said Mistry, who handles vegetable oil buying and trading for Godrej.
However, he said the bull run in palm oil was not over. He forecasts that CPO prices could trade beyond record levels over the next five years, fuelled by growing populations and biodiesel mandates.
Mistry also said that the high production cycle of CPO could extend to October and November due to ideal weather conditions.
"There could be a late peak in palm oil production this year. Should that happen, my estimate of Malaysia’s palm oil production could exceed 17.4 million tonnes for 2008 as the high prices of CPO have enabled planters to use more fertilisers on their palms," he said, adding that Indonesia's output would rise beyond 19 million tonnes.
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Posting #50: Tue Aug 26th, 2008 16:21 |
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DJ UPDATE: Buyers Default, Renegotiate 1.2M Tons Palm Oil Buys
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Buyers have defaulted on, or are renegotiating over 1.2 million metric tons of palm oil contracts, more than previously thought, according to traders attending a three-day conference that concluded here Tuesday.
They said most of the contracts are being renegotiated in China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
"There have been innumerable defaults; one Indian buyer alone has backed out on 80,000 tons of purchases. The total defaults from India would be more than 500,000 tons," said a Malaysia-based exporter, declining to be named.
Renegotiation is a common trading practise if there is a sharp change in prices within a short time span and defaulting has become increasingly common because the cost of backing out of a contract is still much less than paying the higher palm oil price embedded in the original contract.
The defaults and renegotiations come with palm oil prices slumping amid record high output and inventories.
Benchmark palm oil prices have slumped 11.2% in the past two days with the benchmark November contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ending Tuesday MYR191 lower at MYR2,409 a metric ton.
The exporter said many of the defaults have been on cargoes purchased on free-on-board basis.
Several contracts in China, Pakistan and Bangladesh are being renegotiated with exporters ready to supply 60%-90% of the volumes contracted, at current prices, provided the rest is taken delivery of at the original higher price.
In Bangladesh, buyers are petitioning the government to bear the interest burden on credit taken from banks to buy the palm oil and exempt them from the local value added tax on vegetable oils so that they can take delivery of cargoes purchased at higher prices.
However, analysts also caution that the issue should not be blown out of proportion as it will further weaken sentiments.
"Around 70% of India's imports of vegetable oils is handled by four or five large buyers and they are unlikely to renege on their contracts," said a New Delhi-based broker.
He said lines of credit are still being opened at $1,250/ton even though CPO prices basis cost and freight, India's west coast are now $800/ton.
Renegotiation of contracts can only have a psychological impact on prices and reduce earnings of exporters but won't affect the overall volumes available in the market, said the London-based vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry.
"Malaysia and Indonesia are at present together sitting on a huge stockpile of 4.5 million tons of palm oil," said M.R. Chandran, senior group advisor with Platinum Energy, a Kuala Lumpur-based consultancy.
He said Indonesia's incremental output this year is likely to be 2.3 million tons while Malaysia is expected to produce an additional 1.8 million tons in 2008.
He said prices are likely to move between MYR2,400-MYR2,800 during the next four months.
For his part, Mistry said CPO futures may not fall below MYR2,200/ton during the next few weeks if crude oil prices stay around $100/barrel.
However, analysts said the recent fall in prices is likely to create fresh demand, particularly in the biodiesel sector.
"Long-term fundamentals are strong and the market is able to absorb short-term fluctuations," said Yusof Basiron, chief executive, Malaysian Palm Oil Council.
He said palm oil stocks are likely to fall in the next few months as the high production cycle begins to taper-off and demand begins to rise.
On Monday, Malaysia's Minister for Commodities and Plantation Industries Peter Chin said his government is comfortable if prices move between MYR2,500 and MYR3,000 a metric ton, as it makes biodiesel production economically viable.
He said current prices reflect the intrinsic value of palm oil and are more realistic than the record highs reached earlier this year.
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