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homerun Forum Addict

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Posting #11: Tue Oct 24th, 2006 07:26 |
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Hi Moola,
Thank you very much for taking so much of your time to share your valuable and insightful views.
Hexza has 2 core businesses. One is adhersive and synthetic resins, the other is chemical products such as ethyl alcohol, natural vinegar, Kaoliang wine, chemical adhersive etc. According to the write-up on Nanyang, resins sales contributed about 70% to the grp's total revenue. The major raw materials of resins are methanol, urea, phenol, melamine, etc. The prices of these raw materials are very susceptible to crude petroleum price. So the fluctualtion of crude oil price will directly affect the raw material cost of resins. The management mentioned this very often in their quarterly financial reports. But they were reluctant to increase selling price to loyal customers despite the rise in raw material cost.
One industry where resins are widely used is timber industry. Resin is a fast acting bonding material used for bonding wood and composite panels such as particleboard, plywood etc. So it is widely used in the manufacture of plywood etc.. As the demand for plywood is picking up recently, I think demand for resins will also be good going forward. And this should augur well for Hexza.
By the way, Moola, talking about receivables, I list down as follows the most recent 5 quarters' inventories, receivables and cash for our ease of reference :
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 (in mil Rm)
inventories 24.287 20.471 23.720 19.137 20.273
receivables 31.646 34.744 25.827 30.391 36.622
cash 18.468 16.398 24.216 27.596 28.686
The receivables in 2Q07 (lastest qtr) amounted to 36.622 mil, increasing by 6.231 mil from 1Q07 and 4.976mil from 2Q06. Do you think that is a red flag? My opinion is that since the revenue in 2q07 has also increase significantly compared to 1q07 and 2q06, the increase in receivables in 2q07 should not be a big concern.
Your further comments will be greatly appreciated.
Thank you very much.
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Moolah Forum Whacko


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Posting #12: Tue Oct 24th, 2006 08:35 |
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Hi Homerun,
The receivables in 2Q07 (lastest qtr) amounted to 36.622 mil, increasing by 6.231 mil from 1Q07 and 4.976mil from 2Q06. Do you think that is a red flag? My opinion is that since the revenue in 2q07 has also increase significantly compared to 1q07 and 2q06, the increase in receivables in 2q07 should not be a big concern.
I would agree with you that at this moment of time, there's not much concern about the receivables.
Here is an old article link on The Edge: here
There are a lot of interesting stuff from that article, which was written in 2005. Here are some of the stuff which I would ask myself..
"For the first half of FY2006, profit before tax [PBT] margins increased to 13.7% from 8.4% in the first half of FY2005, which shows an improvement in operating efficiencies and economies of scale," says Ng
This is an admirable feat considering that the price of primary raw materials used by Hexza, which include methanol, urea and molasses, has doubled compared with last year, according to analysts. This is mostly brought on by high demand from China and steadily rising oil prices.
This is telling me that despite the increase in the price of raw materials, Hexza is saying that due to to the improvement in operating efficiencies and economics of scale, Hexza has improved its PBT margins to about 13.7%. So question that I need to address is how is Hexza doing now? And I would note that oil seems to be a factor here.
Here's an interesting observation, although it would sidetrack us from the topic. I have noted that certain industries were caught in a rot, where competition drove down selling prices. Now, a strange phenomenon has occurred. Due to the sudden surge in commodity prices caused by factors such rising oil, the boom in commodity metal prices and increased demand of raw materials etc, etc.. certain industries have abanded their low-pricing or low-margin pricing strategy and have adopted a more profit margin awareness in their selling. As such several price-competitive industry has somewhat managed to fare better in recent times.
Anyway, back to Hexza, I guess it would be prudent if I know how the current profit holds. Is the better profit margin caused by better increased pricing? For example, resin is one of the main products sold by Hexza and resin is used a lot in the plywood sector. Now since the plywood sector has been on a rather long boom since 2004. (Is there a segmental report from Hexza on this issue?)
More from that article.
However, ensuring further operational efficiencies is not the only thing Hexza is doing to secure growth.
"Hexza has plans for expansion of all its core businesses — formaldehyde-based resins as well as ethanol [ethyl alcohol] — some of which are in an advanced stage of implementation. The financial impact of these expansions should be accretive in the next financial year," Foong says.
The company has already invested some RM9 million in capital expenditure to increase the capacity of its factories by early FY2006, as its Ipoh plants are already running at full capacity. With the expansion, Hexza expects output to increase by another 30% to 40%. Hexza also has factories in Port Klang and Sarawak.
While its plants in Ipoh deal with the manufacturing of ethanol, its plants in Port Klang and Sarawak are involved in the manufacture and sale of formaldehyde and formaldehyde-based adhesives and resins for timber-related industries.
Ah, there are expansion plans in Hexza.
And lastly...
Yet Hexza's public profile remains decidedly low key despite its good results and position as market leader. However, Foong says this does not mean that the company has not been active behind the scenes.
"Hexza's core businesses are in very competitive sectors. And we are planning and working towards gaining greater market share for these core areas. But as to how much more only time will tell," says Foong.
The low profile issue. This is a double edged thingy. For an investor, if the company is really good, then if the stock has a low profile, it's rather advantageous for the investor as it allows the investor to accumulate the stock.
But..
what's next, right?
Yeah, if the stock continuous to remain low key, then it wouldn't do the investor any good.
Then this other statement..
"Hexza's core businesses are in very competitive sectors.
Important factor to remember I reckon.
These are some of my notes based on this Edge report. What are you thoughts? Care to share?
Cheers
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homerun Forum Addict

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Posting #13: Tue Oct 24th, 2006 11:47 |
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Hi Moola,
Thanks again for your valuable comments and the link to the old article on The Edge.
You wrote : Anyway, back to Hexza, I guess it would be prudent if I know how the current profit holds. Is the better profit margin caused by better increased pricing? For example, resin is one of the main products sold by Hexza and resin is used a lot in the plywood sector. Now since the plywood sector has been on a rather long boom since 2004. (Is there a segmental report from Hexza on this issue?)
I also dont find any segmental report from Hexza on this issue.
As for the plans for expansion, according to the write-up on Nanyang, Hexza spent about Rm25 mil over the last 3 yrs for plant expansion to boost its capacity and is not expected to spend big for the same purpose in the next 2 to 3 years.
The Edge wrote on Oct17,2005: "Hexza has plans for expansion of all its core businesses — formaldehyde-based resins as well as ethanol [ethyl alcohol] — some of which are in an advanced stage of implementation. The financial impact of these expansions should be accretive in the next financial year," Foong says.
So I think the encouraging signs that we have seen in latest 2q07 report such as the increase in revenue and earnings could be the results of the expansion plans. If so, there is a posiibility that the expansion plans implemented over the years have started and will continue to contribute positively to the group's overall performance going forward.
I couldn't agree more with you that the company's low profile issue is a double-edge thingy. On one hand, before we buy, we hope we will be able to buy cheap as a result of the company's low profile. On the other, after we buy, we hope it will no longer be a low-profile company so that people will know more about it and come in to buy to push up the price. As the saying goes : we can't have the cake and eat it. But then again, the Ceo Dr Foong should not have kept Hexza so low-profile and should do something concrete and positive to build up its reputation and public image and recogniton as one of the market leaders in Msia.
As for Dr Foong's statement that Hexza's core businesses are in very competitive sectors. I think as the world becomes increasingly globalised, competition in most of the business sectors will inevitably be very ferocious. The key is how the management can distinguish itself thru its efficiency, productivity, creativity, market strategies, business acumen, cost control etc etc. Hopefully, Hexza is one company that will be able to continue to shine and deliver results in a very competitive business environment.
Lastly, thank you very much again. It has been a good experience exchanging ideas with you like this on a certain stock.
Cheers.
Last edited on Tue Oct 24th, 2006 14:15 by homerun
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Moolah Forum Whacko


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Posting #14: Tue Oct 24th, 2006 12:54 |
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Homerun,
I couldn't agree more with you that the company's low profile issue is a double-edge thingy. On one hand, before we buy, we hope we will be able to buy cheap as a result of the company's low profile. On the other, after we buy, we hope it will no longer be a low-profile company so that people will know more about it and come in to buy to push up the price. As the saying goes : we can't have the cake and eat it. But then again, the Ceo Dr Foong should not have kept Hexza so low-profile and should do something concrete and positive to build up its reputation and public image and recogniton as one of the market leaders in Msia
Just found the recent news article posted on the Star.
Friday October 13, 2006
Hexza does well despite challenges
BY KEITH HIEW
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia's largest ethanol products manufacturer Hexza Corp Bhd has performed “commendably” despite rising materials costs and intense competition, and should be a target stock for investors, said research outfit SBB Securities.
The research house said due to external uncertainties, the brokerage was inclined to focus on companies with good management and valuations rather than on specific sectors, and singled out Hexza as an example of such a stock.
The company's earnings per share (EPS) of 6.1 sen for the first half ended July 31 alone was equivalent to 77% of the EPS for the year ended Jan 31.
Turnover for the second quarter ended July 31 improved 23.9% to RM41.8mil due to expanded capacity in its chemical division and increasing demand for the company's adhesive resins. Net earnings increased 9% to RM4.8mil.
SBB Securities said the company had performed well in spite of challenges like increasing costs and competition due to rising demand of raw materials such as methanol and molasses from China and high oil prices. Hexza's operating margins, it said, had improved to 11.5% for the year ended Jan 31 from 8.5% in 2005, attributed to higher sales and rising economies of scale.
The research house's senior analyst Ng Jun Sheng told StarBiz yesterday that SBB recommended Hexza in October 2004 when the stock was at 54 sen, but the share has not been active and its price has traded in the range of 42 sen to 64 sen in the past two years.
Ng said: “We believe the underperformance of the stock could be due to the lack of media coverage and promotion by the investment community, the eagerness of the company's management to keep a low profile, a lack of investor focus on small-cap companies and maybe a high free float among shareholders.''
He added that SBB believes the company is “ripe” for a re-rating given the resurgence of interest in small-cap stocks, savvy management, undemanding valuations and anticipation of earnings improvement for the year ending Jan 31, 2007 due to lower raw material costs, efficiency gains and lower effective tax rates due to reinvestment allowance.
SBB Securities expects a higher dividend of 3 sen for the financial year ending Jan 31, 2007 from Hexza on the back of higher earnings and stronger net cash of RM25mil.
Another analyst, meanwhile, said Hexza's existing shareholders were also keen to increase their stakes in the company over the past two years as they themselves also recognise the company's value.
Hexza shares closed 6 sen higher, or 11.5%, to 58.5 sen yesterday.
See those comments underlined in bold?
I guess it reflects the issue we are talking about a stock being too low profile.
Anyway, say you are still very interested in this stock. Does this stock pays enough dividends to compensate for being a too-low-a-profile stock?
And how about the company's cash flows? Is it generating a healthy cash flow?
And also.. since the high commodity prices is helping Hexza profitability, I guess one cannot discount the cyclical nature of the earnings because this commodity cycle can not last forever and ever. And coupled with the low profile issue, perhaps one should consider the situation that this stock could continue to remain low profile for quite sometime and the meantime, whilst the stock remains a low profile, the cycle of good earnings for Hexza could diminish before the market 'realises' the beauty of the stock. Could this be a possibility? Maybe. Maybe not.
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Posting #15: Tue Oct 24th, 2006 14:44 |
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Hi Moola,
Your points in analyzing a stock are really valid and solid. I 100% agree.
Since Hexza's share price has not really moved since SBB recommended it at 54 sen in Oct 2004, it is highly likely that Hexza will continue to remain a laggard in years to come. Before taking action, we must always need to excercise care and take into account of all possibilities such as clyclical nature of biz, company's low profile, lack of media coverage, dividend yield, cash flow, our expectation of returns, as well as other criteria and yardsticks, etc. etc..
Just for the record, Hexza paid out 2 sen gross dividend in 2006. Analysts expect a 3-sen gross dividend in 2007.
Thank you very much again.
Cheers.
Last edited on Tue Oct 24th, 2006 14:53 by homerun
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Moolah Forum Whacko


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Posting #16: Wed Oct 25th, 2006 03:00 |
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Homerun,
It's no problem..
Let's compare what we have so far.
As it is, Hexza does has some interesting solid points. Despite being in a tough competitive industry, Hexza has shown consistent earnings growth the past recent years, well-managed and healthy cash balances and its most recent quarter, its cash flow were extremely strong - its cash balances increasing some 4 million plus (versus a negative cash flow of 2 million last fiscal year)(though aided by a one-off gain from disposal of land).
Dividends is there but it's not too exciting and profit margins is slightly average only.
Here's some worries. Raw materials issues. Company has continued to state the importance of this issue in their reports. Hence, one should realise the cyclical factor affecting Hexza good fortunes.
And then the low-profile issue.
The one thing I really do not like about Hexza is its long term investment now termed as other investment. See your notes mentioned.
called other investment replaced the item called available-for-sale financial assets, and the value was Rm16.739 mil. If not mistaken, the marketable securities mentioned by the write-up on nanyang shud be included in these items which they put it either as available-for-sale financial assets or other investment. Still, I am not very sure.
And if you open back the fy 2003, Q4 earnings, this figure is stated as 'investment in associate company'. And the amount then was 10.751 million. What's Hexza associate company?
And 16.739 million is a lot. Especially for a company this size. And in the latest earnings report, in Hexza's notes, you can see that Hexza invest in shares. (this for me is a personal dislike)
See this snapshot below.
Attachment: hex1.jpg (Downloaded 67 times)
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homerun Forum Addict

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Posting #17: Wed Oct 25th, 2006 04:45 |
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Hi Moola,
Thank you very much for the summary and the comparison of what we have discussed so far on Hexza. I think this thread has covered most, if not all, of Hexza's strengths and weak points. This will give us a clearer picture and a better understanding as to whether Hexza is worth a long term investment or not.
Lastly, I really appreciate your willingness and readiness to offer help and second opinion here in this forum. One thing I am sure is by discussing with you here I will broaden my perspectives and views.
Thank you very much again, indeed.
Last edited on Thu Oct 26th, 2006 02:48 by homerun
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Posting #18: Thu Oct 26th, 2006 02:24 |
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Homerun,
You are most welcomed lah.
Cheers
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Posting #19: Wed Mar 28th, 2007 02:52 |
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Homerun,
Updated some numbers for you..
quarterly earnings table
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 ttm
Sales 32.830 29.538 33.724 41.784 42.152 147.018
Profit 2.209 1.376 2.938 4.832 3.524 12.670 |
Looks like it's on track to record better earnings this fiscal year.
sales earnings
2002 109.027 8.282
2003 98.433 4.199
2004 117.487 4.811
2005 128.454 8.221
2006 130.097 10.402
ttm 147.018 12.670
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Posting #20: Wed Mar 28th, 2007 09:47 |
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Hi Moola,
Thank you very much for the update.
This is my homework :
Hexza has just released its 4th quarter results (Nov012006 ~ Jan31,2007). The result is within expectation.
1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 Fy06(cumulative)
Rev 33.275 34.634 32.830 29.358 130.097
PBT 3.393 5.940 2.710 1.497 13.540
Net 2.397 4.420 2.209 1.376 10.402
EPS 1.87 3.44 1.72 1.07 8.10
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 Fy07(cumulative)
Rev (mil) 33.724 41.784 42.152 41.935 159.595
PBT (mil) 3.902 5.367 4.762 4.696 18.727
Net(mil) 2.938 4.832 3.524 3.499 14.793
EPS(sen) 2.29 3.76 2.74 2.72 11.51
As can be seen, revenue surpassed 40 mil rgt level for 3 consecutive qtrs, namely, 2q07, 3q07 and 4q07. This is an encouraging sign as it means business and demand has improved and is picking up.
Compared to Fy06, Fy07 revenue increased 22.7% while net profit increased 42.2%.
1) At current px of 65.0 sen, Hexza is trading at a PER of 5.65 times
4Q07 EPS = 2.72 sen, 12 mth Eps = 11.51sen.
Current price = 65.0 sen
==> PER = 65.0/11.51 = 5.65 times
NTA as at Jan31,07 = Rm1.20
Px/NTA = 65.0/120 = 0.54 times
2) Net cash in hand = 26.8 sen per share
As at Jan31,07,
cash and bank balance = Rm 36.431 mil
long term borrowings = Rm 1.688 mil
short-term borrowings = Rm 0.222
Net cash = 36.431-1.688 - 0.222 = 34.521 mil
total shares = 128.49 mil
==> net cash per share = 34.521/ 128.49 = Rm 0.268 per share
26.8 sen is about 41.2% of its current price of 65.0 sen
3) Quoted securities worth at least 12.7 sen per share
Total investment in quoted securities at cost = Rm 13.119 mil
As at Jan31,07
Total investment in quoted securities at mkt value = Rm 16.274 mil
==> 16.274/ 128.49 = Rm 0.127 per share
Please note that :
as at Jan31,07, KLCI= 1189.35 pts, SBI = 96.14
as at Mar27,07, KLCi = 1247.17 pts, SBI = 97.73 pts.
If you happen to see any miscalculation or error or mis-use of the data or numbers of the source in the above calculations, please let me know, bcos I am still learning and not very sure of the accuracy of my interpretation. haha....
Thank you very much.
Last edited on Wed Mar 28th, 2007 09:49 by homerun
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