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Moolah
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Posting #31: Sat May 31st, 2008 13:48 |
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As wise aunties also say.. Don't count them cows before they are milked.
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KayPee
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Posting #32: Sat May 31st, 2008 13:56 |
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Link to the actual CIBC report here: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/feature1.pdf
It's Saturday.. and it's getting late. Time for this reptile to have some  .
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Moolah
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Posting #33: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 10:27 |
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KayPee wrote: Link to the actual CIBC report here: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/feature1.pdf
It's Saturday.. and it's getting late. Time for this reptile to have some .
I was going to wait 6 days.... but then.... that's not too nice eh?
Considering that you have just taught me how to count to six.... i guess I better be nice. 
So ... what's ur opinion on all this la? U think world can decouple meh? if dun export to US, kaki chiak ah? will it impact Huann ah? good no good? how lah?
ps. 6 questions hor.
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KayPee
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Posting #34: Mon Jun 2nd, 2008 14:44 |
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| So ... what's ur opinion on all this la? U think world can decouple meh? if dun export to US, kaki chiak ah? will it impact Huann ah? good no good? how lah? |
Aare questions hor  . So here goes....
My opinion hor.. wait n see. Decouple .. is this a sex question? Chiak kaki lor.. or your neighbours develop still faster n consume your product.. nahhh. Impact.. just spent a bundle of moolah (no, not you) on new plant wor. Good no good depends on sooooo many other things leh: oil price leh, coal price leh, internal demand leh. How ah... see question 1  .
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waikiat
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Posting #35: Sat Jun 21st, 2008 13:41 |
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Price as recorded in their website....
Coking Coal : RMB 1,443 (+19% qtr-qtr)
Coking Coke : RMB 2,400 (+10% qtr-qtr)
Looks like the price surge of the coal is way too fast compared to the coke... how now ah? margin squeeze likely coming q
Lastest price now...
Coking Coal : RMB 1,500
Coking Coke : RMB 2,950
How? the good, the bad & the sucky...
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Moolah
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Posting #36: Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 01:37 |
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Waikiat,
Ahh... very good update. Good work!
So how? Would u 'invest' in this stock now?
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waikiat
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Posting #37: Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 03:23 |
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it clearly shows that the increase in the coal price is too fast for the company. whenever they revise their coke price, the coal starts to surge again. the company has been adapting in reviewing their coke price on a weekly basis, but not good enuf. thus, the difference of the selling price...
but the so called gem here is clearly the "additional" contribution from their new plant. but will have to wait till the 3rd qtr for the results. will it be too late then? or will it be a clear dissappointment?
their margins dropped from 21% (3Q07) to 19% (4Q07) to 15% (1Q08)... tho with the substantial increase in their selling price, there is still a drop in their margins, so with all the news clipping saying their ability to transfer the additional cost to their customers is not working... also the crude oil surge is not helping too...
for a company like HUAAN, they do not have to worry no one is buying their products coz an agreement is made every year on the contractual quantity they have to provide to their clients. just tat the selling price will depends on the current spot price...
so i believe the company will be profitable but not many will like the margin squeeze... for me, its a YES! what i hope to see is HUAAN to get back to the region of 18-20% for their margins (which is quite a task). also, i believe an EPS of 15-17c is achievable for 2008...
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Moolah
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Posting #38: Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 03:25 |
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Waaaa... many thanks for sharing your detailed reasoning!
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waikiat
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Posting #39: Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 06:23 |
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are u tryin to u imply "mannn, this guy really can tok kok lar...."
haha...
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random
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Posting #40: Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 07:06 |
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No man.. seriously it's good s-hit.. Can't say I have much info on HUAAN so can't comment much..
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