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Kop
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 Posting #11: Fri Dec 21st, 2007 03:42

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Yes, competition is hotting up. I think that is the main issue.

As for oil, there is still the very much hidden "fuel surcharge", which is so not transparent.

Moolah
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 Posting #12: Fri Dec 21st, 2007 03:49

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Their hedging position looks so rather messed up... and worse still, the company ain't so forthright over their exact position. And given the extremes with the oil prices, i do not see how any investor could be comfy with the company when they do not exactly how AA has hedged their positions.



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 Posting #13: Fri Dec 21st, 2007 03:51

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I fear that competition on the budget platform, can only come in the form of price competitiveness, which can be very damaging to the bottomline.

Moolah
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 Posting #14: Sat Jan 12th, 2008 02:28

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Ah... this article... sheds so much light...

-----------

AirAsia: No more bets on oil price

There has been significant selling from AirAsia's foreign shareholders and this is 'related to AirAsia's fuel-hedging policy', says an analyst

 Published: 2008/01/11

AIRASIA Bhd, Asia's biggest discount carrier by fleet size, will stop making bets on the price of oil, after incorrect forecasts contributed to a 16 per cent slide in shares over the last month.

"It's a nightmare because the volatility is crazy," chief executive officer Datuk Tony Fernandes said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Thursday. "We took a bet that oil won't go above US$90 a barrel and it has and it's staying there."

Crude oil rose to a record US$100 a barrel earlier this month instead of falling as AirAsia had predicted. If the price of oil remains at that level, earnings could fall by RM8.45 million a month because of speculative hedging, according to Christopher Eng, an analyst at OSK Research Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur.

There has been significant selling from AirAsia's foreign shareholders," Eng wrote in a January 9 report. The drop is "related to AirAsia's fuel-hedging policy, which some parties considered excessively speculative."

Fidelity International cut its stake by 9.8 million shares as of December 24, according to Bloomberg data.

The Sepang, Malaysia-based carrier also said it will keep ticket prices unchanged even as the cost of fuel rises.

"The danger for low-cost carriers is that it will impact demand," Fernandes said in Singapore. "You can't keep raising prices all the time. Oil inflation doesn't move in line with salary inflation."

Fernandes is counting on higher ticket sales and revenue from selling food, drinks and other services to offset higher expenses.

The price of jet fuel, the biggest expense at most Asian airlines, fell one per cent to US$108.50 a barrel in Singapore yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

That is 53 per cent higher than a year earlier. Crude oil futures reached a record US$100.09 a barrel on January 3.

AirAsia fell one sen, or 0.6 per cent, to RM1.58 at the 5pm close of trading in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

AirAsia has ordered 175 single-aisle A320s from Airbus SAS, worth at least RM39.33 billion at list prices, as it wins permission to start new routes, including flights between Kuala Lumpur and neighbouring Singapore.

For now, it has enough aircraft to expand operations and will not need to exercise options to purchase another 50 planes of the same model "for the next few years," Fernandes said.

The carrier, which will begin services between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur on February 1, plans to operate as many as 20 daily return flights between the two capitals by 2013, carrying as many as seven million passengers, he said. - Bloomberg

 

====>>>>>>

Ahhh....you buggers bet big lah... and now when the share gets hit BIG time... finally u guys decided to shed more light!

Shudn't u guys be more transparent from the start? 



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 Posting #15: Mon Jan 14th, 2008 06:44

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Read they sold oil at $86.20 from 2008 to mid 2010!

How much loss so far?
Just cos they made a pretty buck hedging last year at the rising of oil, they think they have become oil Xperts by selling below $90.
How much profit in 2007 actually from hedging and Not operating profits?

Now, how much they gonna lose? i understand they close out those sales already BUT means they are NOw unhdged against this present HIGH oil prices! Good luck to ALL AIRASIA investors! :)

Moolah
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 Posting #16: Mon Jan 14th, 2008 06:49

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prophet wrote: Read they sold oil at $86.20 from 2008 to mid 2010!

How much loss so far?
Just cos they made a pretty buck hedging last year at the rising of oil, they think they have become oil Xperts by selling below $90.
How much profit in 2007 actually from hedging and Not operating profits?

Now, how much they gonna lose? i understand they close out those sales already BUT means they are NOw unhdged against this present HIGH oil prices! Good luck to ALL AIRASIA investors! :)

 

Prop,

You have made a good point lah esp. on the point where the investor needs to know where AA profits is coming from. Is it a result from the company's hedging policy or is it pure operating profits?

Me? This is simply a complex issue for me... i ain't smart enuf to solve it so i reckon staying away is always ZE best policy.

rgds



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 Posting #17: Wed Jan 16th, 2008 01:44

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Ahhh....

------------------

AA Official statement Posted on Bursa..

Kuala Lumpur, 15 January 2008 – AirAsia wishes to rectify certain statements appearing in the press and analyst reports with regards to the Company’s fuel hedging strategy.   

It has been stated by the press and in some analyst reports that the Company adopts a fuel hedging strategy that is speculative. The Company wishes to notify that it has never speculated on fuel prices in the past and will not speculate on fuel prices going forward. Our strategy has always been to hedge fuel requirements whenever an attractively priced structure is available. Fuel hedging is an important component of our strategy as it provides us with clarity over our cost structure; this will allow us to manage our seat inventory better and aids route development. We are averse to risks and therefore believe in mitigating those risks by removing variability and uncertainties from our business whenever suitable opportunities arise.  

Prior to a trade being executed, one would have assessed the current operating and market conditions before choosing the appropriate hedge. Therefore, the decision to hedge begins with a view. At the time the earlier hedge was taken in July 2007, our view was that oil prices of above USD90/barrel will be a result of excessive speculative market action in that commodity.

Fuel price volatility intensified in the later part of the second half of 2007 due to higher fuel consumption projections, supply disruptions, geopolitical risk concerns, and the weakening of the US Dollar. Due to the high volatility in oil prices, we are of the view that adopting a static hedged approach (through fixed/plain vanilla swaps) at current price levels would involve taking excessive risks. If one were to opt for a fixed swap now and should fuel prices retrace subsequently, we would be left with effectively an obligation to purchase expensive fuel with no room to manoeuvre out of the position. Therefore, we opted for a dynamic approach and layered fuel hedge structures. We are confident that this is the most suitable approach to manage the high volatile fuel prices and will continue to apply this strategy in the future.

We approach this fuel hedging subject carefully and we have always maintained a conservative stance which has resulted in positive contributions from our past fuel hedges. This has ultimately benefited the Company in reducing the total fuel bill and hence enhance our ability to offer low fares to our guests.

Over the past two months, foreign funds have been reducing their exposure in airline stocks. As depicted in the table below, all the prominent low cost carriers around the world experienced heavy sell downs. Therefore it would be inappropriate to lay the blame on our fuel hedges as the reason for the decline in the Company’s share price.    

 

“We believe that the recent sell down of AirAsia shares are overdone. The Company’s fundamentals are in the best position ever, market demand continues to be robust and we will be launching lucrative routes such as Kuala Lumpur to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur to Guangzhou. With this fuel hedge in place, and assuming that the strong demand and pick-up rate that we are seeing is sustainable, the Company is in a sound position to deliver strong profit growth for the financial year – barring any unforeseen events and circumstances.”



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 Posting #18: Wed Jan 16th, 2008 01:54

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Company adopts a fuel hedging strategy that is speculative. The Company wishes to notify that it has never speculated on fuel prices in the past and will not speculate on fuel prices going forward

Strong statements made...

On one hand... great to see them made this statement...

But... on the other hand.... I dun like what I see. My interpretation is I see a CEO coming out strongly trying to defend the company share price. That's the bottom line i see. Defending the company share price.

Ah... this one very debatable and not all of you will agree with what i had said... but that's my view mah.

Anyway... if the company is innocent, it should be never afraid of the dark... yes?

And if the company was transparent enough in the first place, then this issue should never come out yes? Why wait until the market bash ur share price down??

And then... i obviously can make comparisons with AA now and their IPO thingee... now folks are speculating that AA is speculating with their fuel hedges, and what AA has done is come out with their guns blazing. No problem...

but...

what about ur incredible IPO fiasco? http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2005/11/airasia.html

yes... what about it? Why dun AA try to explain clearly why the company earnings were so piss poor compared to what they promised to their IPO investors? Yeah... still silent on that issue?

How?



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 Posting #19: Wed Jan 16th, 2008 11:33

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Here is the Edge Weekly main story...

------------

14 Jan 2008: Big Money: Did AirAsia speculate on oil prices?
By P Gunasegaram

Did budget airline AirAsia hedge oil prices… or did it speculate as well? Should it or shouldn't it have done it and what should it do now?

But first, back to basics. No, it is not a thin line between hedging and speculating. It is quite clear what hedging is and what speculating is. Let's first make the difference very plain with particular reference to jet fuel.

When you hedge, you use derivatives to reduce as much as practicable the cost of rising jet fuel. But it comes at a cost — the more you hedge the more it costs and if jet fuel prices drop, you would have paid the cost of a hedge that you never had to use.

Hedging makes a return from your investment safer by reducing fluctuations in your underlying income by softening the impact of rising input costs. There is a risk—return trade—off in hedging because it is designed neither to profit nor to lose because of price fluctuations — your income may be lower but it is less volatile.

Speculation, on the other hand, is an attempt to try and profit from price movements by taking leveraged positions as to which direction and by how much prices will move. The more contrary you are in the position you take, the more you will make provided the price moves in the direction you bet it will move. And, importantly, you stand to lose a lot when the price moves against you because this is a leveraged bet since you are dealing with options, unless you cover your position.

Speculation increases the volatility of your income and, therefore, your risk. Your income stream becomes more uncertain and, therefore, investors demand a higher rate of return. All things being equal, the price of the asset falls when the income stream from the asset becomes more uncertain — you can't run away from the risk—return trade—off.

The term "speculative hedge" seems a contradiction in terms because hedging is thought of normally as a means of reducing risk while speculation increases it.

Now we are in a position to better examine if indeed AirAsia speculated but quantifying things will be difficult because quantities are not publicly disclosed although some brokers appear to know the figures.

Let's take one derivatives trade, the one causing all the problems now. Its latest available quarterly report said: "The company also sold calls (quarterly extendibles) at the average price of US$82.60/barrel from January 2008 to June 2010 with knock—in at US$90/barrel."

It's worth noting that no quantities were given and there was no statement to explain how AirAsia would be affected in terms of oil price movements. Let's demystify that statement.

It means AirAsia sold someone the right to pay US$82.60 per barrel of oil to take effect from January 2008 to June 2010, a period of 30 months, when the price of oil per barrel reaches US$90 per barrel. As we all know, oil crossed US$100 per barrel recently, which means AirAsia stands to lose US$17.40 per barrel at US$100 a barrel for whatever amount it contracted to sell during the period.

Importantly, AirAsia, through that call, basically bet that oil would not cost more than US$90 a barrel. Why? Perhaps it was part of a complicated hedge to fix its oil prices, but at the end of the day, it was not.

AirAsia deputy group chief executive Datuk Kamarudin Meranun told The Edge (see news story) that the net effect of all the complicated hedging was that the company had covered all its positions but that it will have to pay the market price of jet fuel.

In other words, despite all the hedging efforts that AirAsia made, it did not manage to hedge an exposure to rising oil prices — a basic plain vanilla hedge would have done that. That is likely to have come about if its hedging policies did not only hedge but took speculative positions based on its own view of which way oil prices would move.

Kamarudin himself believes that an airline company should not trade or speculate in oil.

Unless it can show us otherwise, AirAsia seems to have speculated — it did not merely insulate itself against rising jet fuel prices but took positions based on its reading of the oil market.

The best way for AirAsia to overcome any such uncertainty is to come clean. Reveal all its positions and, more importantly, explain what they mean in language understandable to all shareholders. That means it reveals how much it will gain or lose for every dollar increase or drop in the price of oil.

Some brokers seem to have information on AirAsia's trades and they have tried to make sense of it. But rather than let the market speculate the extent of its losses, AirAsia should quantify this for the benefit of all investors in keeping with the principle of not only timely but fair disclosure of material information.

That's the least that it can — and should — do, especially when there is so much speculation as to how much it really lost.

 



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 Posting #20: Thu May 29th, 2008 08:19

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AA today 1 buck... :glad:

:cheers1:


Can someone show this stock some love?


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