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Moolah
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Posting #41: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 04:35 |
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Here's AA performace by itself since IPO.
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random
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Posting #42: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 05:01 |
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How many IPO's rly make money for the investor? 
IPO = It's Probably Overpriced (Jason Zweig) 
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Moolah
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Posting #43: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 10:21 |
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Anyway the point made about MAS is rather valid.
So why not MAS?
(MAS not fly to Manchester?)
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Moolah
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Posting #44: Mon Jun 2nd, 2008 06:09 |
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KN has a sell rating on AA. Target 95 sen.
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AirAsia
Below expectation
SELL
RM1.04
Target Price: RM0.95
l 1Q08 revenue of RM535.2m was in line with our expectations and market’s. Core net profit of RM23.5m (excluding forex gain of RM86.2m) however was only 14.9% of our forecast. The severe underperformance is due to the spike in oil price which had far exceeded our assumed US$95/barrel.
l QoQ, revenue and EBITDA fell 15.4% and 42.4% respectively on seasonality. Cost/ASK however decreased 8.3% to 10.6sen mainly on higher income from the leasing of A320 to AirAsia Thai and lower depreciation cost as the leased aircrafts were no longer carried in AirAsia’s book.
l YoY, 1Q08 revenue achieved a 31.7% growth underpinned by : a) 20.9 % growth in passenger volumes to 2.6m passengers; b) 10.1% growth in yield (1Q08: 17.0 sen against 1Q07: 15.5 sen) supported by higher average fare (+7.5% yoy); and c) increase of ancillary income (+57.9% yoy) to RM40.9m. Load factor however fell 4.4 percentage points yoy to 72.1% on aggressive capacity expansion (+36%), normal gestation of new routes and a sudden drop of load factor for China routes in Jan and Feb 08 due to snowstorms.
l Fleet restructuring - accelerating retirement of less fuel efficient B737. Group will phase out 16 B737s and left with 17 B737s by year end. Malaysia fleet will be all A320s with Thai AirAsia having a predominantly A320 fleet by end of 2008.
l Lowering our FY08 and FY09 core net profit projection by 58.7% and 62.5% to RM65.4m and RM94.8m respectively mainly on continuing high oil prices coupled with increased competition that should pressure near term performance. Following our earnings downgrade, we lower our target price to RM0.95 based on current NTA. Our switch to an NTA based valuation is a result of the current volatile market situation which makes forecasting exceptionally difficult. Strong headwinds and negative newsflows are likely to pressure share price performance in the near term. Downgrade
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Moolah
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Posting #45: Tue Jun 3rd, 2008 09:04 |
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Posted on the Edge...
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03-06-2008: Slide continues at AirAsia
by Jose Barrock
KUALA LUMPUR: The shares of low-cost carrier AirAsia Bhd continued to slide yesterday on the back of negative news flow.
Deutsche Bank yesterday reduced its target price for AirAsia’s stock to RM1.05 per share or down 16% from its previous target. This comes on the back of several other downgrades by both international and local research outfits, which have revised their take on AirAsia largely because of rising oil prices.
Kenanga Investment Bank, meanwhile, reduced its target price for AirAsia to 95 sen in line with the budget airline’s net tangible asset per share. Kenanga Investment Bank also reduced FY2008 and FY2009 core net profit projection by 58.7% and 62.5% to RM65.4 million and RM94.8 million, respectively.
Much of the negative sentiment was centred on high oil prices, coupled with increased competition from national carrier Malaysian Airlines System Bhd (MAS), which could pressure near-term performance. MAS has come out with a sub zero fare campaign, which rivals AirAsia’s low fare model.
For the three months ended March this year, AirAsia raked in RM161.3 million in net profits from RM535.2 million in revenue. In contrast to a year ago, net profits gained by 86% while revenue improved 32%. However, Kenanga adds that core net profit of AirAsia is RM23.5 million (excluding a foreign exchange gain of RM86.2 million) which is only 14.9% of Kenanga’s forecast for AirAsia.
AirAsia’s stock ended trading at RM1.16 yesterday, the same level as its initial public offering (IPO) which took place in November 2004. Year-to-date, AirAsia shares have shed about 37%.
Much of the fall in AirAsia’s stock price has been in tandem with the steep increases in fuel prices.
Overall sentiment for the airline industry has also been weak, fuelled by International Air Transport Association chief executive officer Giovanni Bisignani’s statement that traffic growth in the industry could be at best 3.9% this year from 5.9% in 2007.
He also forecast industry-wide losses of US$2.3 billion (RM7.4 billion) this year if crude oil prices were to maintain at US$107 this year, and losses of US$6.1 billion should oil prices maintain at prices of US$135 per barrel.
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stockraider1
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Posting #46: Tue Jun 3rd, 2008 10:09 |
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| For once Jose Barrock is talking 'sense' posted wholly without comment from Moolah.
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random
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Posting #47: Wed Jun 4th, 2008 07:37 |
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Airlines in crisis with rising fuel prices
ISTANBUL: Kuala Lumpur will host the 65th International Air Travel Association (IATA) annual general meeting (AGM) next year, from June 7-9.
The meeting is, however, expected to be held in a cloud of gloom and doom.
Next year’s meeting is expected to be a watershed for IATA, which is an association of traditional full-service carriers, as the industry is faced with skyrocketing fuel prices.
While crude oil is selling for about US$135 per barrel this week, jet fuel is already retailing at US$171 per barrel.
The just-completed AGM here adopted the Istanbul Declaration where the over- 200 airlines declared that their industry was in crisis and had flown into a “perfect storm” of troubles brought about by fuel prices.
They implored governments and unions to join them in a fight to rescue the industry which, they claimed, was handicapped by restrictive laws and high and unproductive wages.
IATA’s director-general and chief executive officer, Giovanni Bisignani described the situation as an emergency and was not optimistic that every member present for the meeting here would be able to be in Kuala Lumpur next year.
He expressed hope that the industry would meet in Kuala Lumpur with “better news” than the current situation.
The association’s general assembly agreed to a proposal by Malaysia Airlines for the next meeting to be held in Kuala Lumpur.
Some 900 senior airline executives and their spouses as well as more than 140 international journalists are expected to attend next year’s AGM.
MAS managing director and chief executive officer, Datuk Seri Idris Jala introduced the country with a multimedia presentation at the close of the 64th AGM in Istanbul yesterday.
Last edited on Wed Jun 4th, 2008 07:38 by random
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Moolah
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Posting #48: Thu Jun 5th, 2008 07:00 |
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AA... now 0.915 sen only.... 
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05-06-2008: Heavy trading in AirAsia shares continues
KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia Bhd’s stock has been heavily traded in the past few weeks with no real indication of the cause of investor interest or unusual developments at the budget airline.
Yesterday, more than 28.2 million AirAsia shares changed hands, making the counter the most active and raising the 10-day cumulative trade above the 126.5 million shares mark, or about 5.3% of the company’s share base.
There were several large off-market trades yesterday transacted at between 96.5 sen and 98 sen. However, it is not clear yet who the buyers of these blocks of shares were. AirAsia closed at 95.5 sen yesterday shedding 3.5 sen from the previous day’s close.
Fuelling this heavy trading and slump in price could be the escalating oil prices, which breached the US$130 (RM422.50) per barrel mark late last month. Jet fuel cost accounts for about 50% of AirAsia’s operating.
Investor interest also could have stemmed from the company’s stock gaining the “penny” status, trading below its IPO price of RM1.16 back in November 2004.
Year-to-date, the company’s stock has shed about 40% of its market capitalisation and it has underperformed the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index by 30.3% for the same period.
While the outlook seems bleak, announcements to the Bursa Malaysia indicate that Nomad Investment Partnership LP and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) have been moping up a considerable amount of shares.
Nomad Investment Partnership emerged as a substantial shareholder with 118.8 million shares or 5% equity at the end of May this year. The company went on to acquire 1.2 million shares, nudging up its shareholding to 5.05% or 120 million shares. The EPF meanwhile emerged as a substantial shareholder in January this year with 5.22% or 123.7 million shares, but has since upped its shareholding to about 5.5% or 131 million shares.
Among the companies that have been disposing of their equity in AirAsia is T Rowe Price Associates Inc. The Baltimore-based company hived off about 5.5 million shares in the budget airline on May 21, reducing its shareholding to 167.6 million shares or 7.1%. In contrast, in early August last year, T Rowe Price had about 8.1% or 192.2 million shares in AirAsia.
It is noteworthy that the EPF has emerged as a substantial shareholder at a time when airline stocks are being shunned.
Despite the challenging environment, AirAsia has been profitable. For the first three months of the year, the it posted a net profit of RM161.3 million from revenues of RM535.2 million, an improvement of about 85.6% and 31.8%, respectively from a year ago.
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Moolah
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Posting #49: Fri Jun 6th, 2008 06:04 |
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| [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs cuts AirAsia (5099.KU) target price to MYR0.79 from MYR1.50; keeps at Sell. Raises 2008E pre-exceptional net profit estimate 13%, but cuts 2009E by 44%. Says earnings revisions primarily due to new jet fuel price assumption of US$130/bbl, up from US$105/bbl; also has revised traffic and yield growth estimates for Asia's airline sector. Expects airline sector to underperform the market given concerns on rising fuel prices and traffic deterioration; lowers sector view to Cautious. "We estimate that a majority of airlines under our coverage are making losses at current jet fuel levels. Even more disconcerting, rising spread between crude and jet fuel prices since January 2008 could lead to earnings disappointment for companies using crude oil as proxy for jet fuel hedges." Share up 1.1% at MYR0.93. (LES)
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Moolah
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Posting #50: Tue Jun 17th, 2008 03:12 |
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http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/06/airasia-lunatics-and-cheap-talks.html
Only a Lunatic would hedge oil????????????
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