 |
| |
Page: 1 2 3   |
|
| Author | Post |
|---|
JackSparrow
Forum Newbie
| Joined: | |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: |  |
|
Posting #1: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 08:28 |
|
The Baltic Dry Index tracks the shipping rate charges.
Since May 2006, the index has improved from a reading of 2485 to about 3600 currently (or nearly 45%)
There is an evident divergence in that stock prices of shipping stocks have yet to show similar strength (with the exception of Maybulk).
the industry bellweather MISC has recently announced lower profits. Any possiblity of a re-rating soon?
All other Baltic Indices like Panamax, Capesize and Supramax shows similar strength.
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Shipping stocks I watch
MISC
Maybulk
MMM
Global Carrier
Halim Mazmin
(is Freight Management a logistics or shipping company). Can any1 indicate what other shipping stocks Bursa has?
Attachment: bdirecent.gif (Downloaded 168 times)
|
Moolah
Forum Whacko
| Joined: | Sun Jul 9th, 2006 |
| Location: | Moo Moo Land |
| Posts: | 12813 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: |  |
|
Posting #2: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 08:47 |
|
FMS is complex.
FMH has steadily built up the business over the years to turn a fledgling sea freight services company into a multi-modal international player. Essentially, it means that the company provides point-to-point distribution of goods, be it via sea, air or rail.
It claims to have a comprehensive list of supporting services such as customs brokerage, trucking, warehousing and inventory management.
“We are the only local freight service provider offering the whole suite of services under one roof,” says FMH founder and managing director Chew Chong Keat.
He adds that the one-stop centre concept allows its customers to enjoy point-to-point distribution of their goods in a more efficient and economical manner. It also reduces transhipment handling, enabling the goods to reach its customers faster.
But the company's focus, since its inception, continues to be in LCL (less than a container load) consolidation.
If not mistaken, it's niche was in the LCL business...
____________________
|
JackSparrow
Forum Newbie
| Joined: | |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #3: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 08:54 |
|
Thanks moolah
Seems like Freight is more like Konsort kinda biz
|
Moolah
Forum Whacko
| Joined: | Sun Jul 9th, 2006 |
| Location: | Moo Moo Land |
| Posts: | 12813 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #4: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 09:03 |
|
Yeah it does, doesn't it?
But if I remember correctly because Freight does LCL (less Container Load) it has an edge of Konst.
Most of the shippers have reported less than impressive earnings woh.
MMM is junk and in deep trouble, Halim was really less than impressive - in fact rather poor lately, Global C is rather too smallish...
which leaves you with Misc and Maybulk.
Maybulk... this one hard to gauge. For as long as i can remember, since its listing, this company is quite active in its selling of boats/barges.. which makes it so unpredictable because there is no way i can logically say if this company is good or bad....
is there any other?
____________________
|
Moolah
Forum Whacko
| Joined: | Sun Jul 9th, 2006 |
| Location: | Moo Moo Land |
| Posts: | 12813 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #5: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 09:05 |
|
Oh...
| Most of the shippers have reported less than impressive earnings woh. |
the divergence thingy...
:s13:
____________________
|
JackSparrow
Forum Newbie
| Joined: | |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #6: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 09:24 |
|
yep, totally aware of the state of the rubbish shipping stocks like MMM, GlobalC.
The concept of a powerful theme play is that there has to be a fundamental backing to the play which means, stocks prices will lag the fundamentals initially (which is where the opportunity is thus, it doesnt matter that earnings dissapoint now)
After which, the next watch is the bellweather stocks, in this case, MISC and Maybulk. They must lead the charge and then some analyst will write abt the Baltic Index and the other hopeless goons in shipping follow.
Bottomline. MISC must lead
|
Moolah
Forum Whacko
| Joined: | Sun Jul 9th, 2006 |
| Location: | Moo Moo Land |
| Posts: | 12813 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #7: Tue Aug 29th, 2006 09:36 |
|
:s5: :s5:
____________________
|
on2920
Forum Addict
| Joined: | Tue Dec 26th, 2006 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 19 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #8: Mon Dec 31st, 2007 17:43 |
|
Report from Citi. (via theStar Maritime section, Monday, 31st Dec 2007)
-----
Container, dry bulk seen on downtrend
By SHARIDAN M. ALI
THE container and dry bulk shipping industry is forecast to trend downwards next year due to anticipation of weaker Asia-to-the United States trades amid a situation of supply exceeding demand.
Citi Investment Research (Asia-Pacific), in its latest transportation outlook report, said global TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) were expected to see a 9% growth next year from 10% this year.
“This is based on some deceleration in Asia-Europe outbound trades and continued softening in Asia to US trades,” it said.
The research house said for Asia to US trades, Transpacific remained the most important market in the world and “it has not been doing well”.
“Behind a marketing push by container liners on pricing, carrier executives have talked openly of slashed capacity and flat volumes,” it said.
It said the volumes to the US West Coast fell short of this year's forecasts, which originally called for 10% growth. It was downgraded at 7% to 8% and recently, at 2% to 5%.
“Based on current data, growth is about 2% to 3%,” it said.
On the positive side, shipping lines made customers pay for higher inter modal pass-through charges.
“Also, the generous capacity cuts by prominent shipping group Maersk helped the market, to an extent.
“Maersk, in late 2006 and early this year, took out about 20% of its capacity from this trade,” it said.
Citi Investment said the Transpacific rates in the second half this year remained several percentage points below last year's despite higher fuel and other costs.
“We believe next year will follow a similar deterioration trend due to weaker demand and lower rates from the US property bubble,” it said.
It added that the third quarter of this year all-in rate on the Transpacific Eastbound was lower by 0.5% at US$1,707 per TEU.
“This rate includes the higher fuel costs, which the container lines will try their best to redress next year.
“We believe 2008 will be another difficult year despite news that CSCL shipping line has joined the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) that now represents about 80% of capacity in the Transpacific Eastbound,” it said.
TSA is a research and discussion group of major container shipping lines, offering ocean and inland transportation, logistics and supply chain services from Asia to the US.
To counter the downturn, the research house said, the Asia-Europe trade combining the North Europe and the Mediterranean, was expected to be the world's largest trade by box volume next year “if the Asia to Europe trade grows more rapidly to the US”.
“Given the run rate of growth has been at 20% or above this year, congestion is feared in many North Europe ports.
“In August and September, overall growth slowed to about 16% to 17%, and base case growth can still be expected to hold at 15% next year,” Citi Investment said.
Interestingly, it said, the real driver of trade growth was strong demand from Europe for China-made goods.
“Growth into the Mediterranean has been even stronger than North Europe, partly because of growth into the Black Sea area,” it said.
For dry bulk, the research house forecasts that supply would exceed demand by end 2008 due to increased capacity.
“Near-term deliveries continue to creep up due to off-the-radar ship orders being completed.
“Weaker tanker rates and the phasing out of single hull tankers have resulted in many ship owners converting their tankers into carrying dry bulk. This creates a surplus in capacity,” it said.
Citi Investment said the latest Clarkson numbers for bulk deliveries next year would be 29.1 million dead weight tonnes (dwt).
“Oil tanker conversions threaten to add another 7 million dwt next year, which can bring total supply growth in 2008 to almost 9%, before accounting for potential scrapping of old vessels and order book slippage,” it said.
“Still, we are weary of putting too much hope on slippage, since we expect 2008 deliveries to continue creeping upwards,” it added.
Although the supply and demand situation may be debatable in terms of where it would take the dry bulk market, the research house expects it would be down.
“Bulk capacity will hit at 9% to 10% growth levels like we have never seen before.
“Total demand growth, including special factors such as congestion and demand growth for long haul will have to accelerate from its recent China-driven, all time high levels to keep pace with supply,” Citi Investment said.
It said demand growth seen from the China-driven growth since 2003 to date had been only 7.24% per year on average and on a longer-term, demand had only grown 3.4% per year from 1980 to 2007.
“Also, if one believes the growth in China will slow down, then one will be hard-pressed to show how demand can overcome the current order book,” it added.
Nevertheless, it said, bulk stocks could have one more phase of bullish market next year though downside risks could be on the rise as the year progressed.
On shipping stocks, the research house, which has an “underweight” call on the shipping sector, has rated a “hold” on shipping companies Wan Hai and Precious.
It is maintaining a “sell” call on CSCL and Hanjin based on their high valuations.
-----
Source: http://thestar.com.my/maritime/story.asp?file=/2007/12/31/maritime/19858174&sec=maritime
Action: To unload Maybulk?
|
Moolah
Forum Whacko
| Joined: | Sun Jul 9th, 2006 |
| Location: | Moo Moo Land |
| Posts: | 12813 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #9: Tue Jan 1st, 2008 03:12 |
|
Good update on,
imo this issue should not be discounted and if one holds stocks like Maybulk, then perhaps there is some justifications to consider unloading....
____________________
|
Moolah
Forum Whacko
| Joined: | Sun Jul 9th, 2006 |
| Location: | Moo Moo Land |
| Posts: | 12813 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posting #10: Tue Jan 8th, 2008 07:36 |
|
On,
Blogged on this: http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/01/regarding-dry-bulk-shipping-sector.html
____________________
|
Current time is 21:16 | Page: 1 2 3 |
|
|
|
|
