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kokokai
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Posting #31: Fri Jun 20th, 2008 09:14 |
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Below are the post in the blogs below.i don't own these blogs. Just help the blogger to advertise to get some freebies on value investing.
Note: This article does not apply to you if:
Nowadays, Malaysian media are very discreet on the economic data. Maybe they have been politely requested not to leak out undesirable outlook of the economy. I really hope they give out some hints on the stock market before the general election, but they have been very lip-tight. If the media have performed scenario analysis before the general election, many investors can save their asses in the March 2007’s circuit breaker event. They should have done it because they had the first hand information from reliable sources. But they didn’t. That’s why I always doubted Malaysian media.
Feeling disappointed with Malaysian media, I took some time to accumulate information from various foreign media and perform scenario analysis. My results show that chances for another consolidation in Bursa are on the high side.
This article will reveal several high probability events which may shake the confidence of investors in KLSE.
Most of us know that current rise in KLCI is driven by steel sector due to liberalization of steel price (See, you can’t fight market forces. BN, please study some economics). It is also driven up by oil and gas and plantation stocks. Recently, Lafarge requested the government to review cement price.
To understand what really happened before,during and after the election, let’s refer to the volume data in KLCI for clue. Click here!
Looking at monthly volume data, the volume from Jan 2008 to April 2008 fell from 23 000 mil units to 13 000 mil units (volume are rounded up for easy comprehension). This indicated a weakening market sentiment even before the election. Maybe somebody knew something. From May 2006 to April 2008, the highest monthly volume achieved was 50 000 mil units (Feb 2007) compared to lowest monthly volume 11 000 (Jun 2006).
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But the bull in 2007 was a ‘funded’ bull. The high GDP in 2007 was a subsidied GDP. In 2007, the government had provided the people with variety of ‘feel good’ candies, which originated from the announcement of North, South, East, and West Corridors. These feel good projects have helped Barisan Nasional to ‘just scraped through’ in the last general election. It was these feel good candies which pushed the market to its highest volume after the 1997’s crisis. I still remembered the days when daily volume hit 2 billion units last year. Many investors were literally laughing all the way to the banks.
[size=Currently, the monthly volumes are quite similar to the volume in 2006. This means, the rise in 2007 was not driven by fundamentals but merely a feel good sensation. Or should I call it ‘One night stand’. By simple calculation, the total cost of all growth corridors is around RM 100++ billions.This amount of investment is for 20 years of development. That means, every Malaysian will become wealthy in this two decades. But most of know these growth projects will benefit ’UMNO powered filtering system’ before crums are left for the Rakyat.]
[size=The rise in KLSE in 2007 was not supported by a strong foundation.So, please do not day dream for such sharp rise again, until the next general election! ]
[size=Let’s analyse the political scenario.]
[size= ]
Anwar announced that he had enough mutinees from BN. Loyal BN Information Minister Datuk Shaberry Cheek felt frustrated and named these mutinees-political prostitutes. He should have censored that. Most of us knew that BN would have been defeated in the general election if not for seats contributed by Sabah and Sarawak. Despite being thankful to MP from Sabah and Sarawak, BN persisted on ‘parasitising‘ strategy on the two rich states.Are B.N full of IDI_Ts?
There are also news that UMNO is sucking the government dry since they know Anwar will successfully take over the government-leaving him with a debt-ridden government. Although, UMNO has strongly denied the defection of its members, Malaysians are prepared for the worst. Maybe you should withdraw all your funds from Maybank, CIMB, PNB and Amanah Saham Nasional and keep it neatly tucked in a biscuit tin, it’s probably safer that way, trust me. Don’t act ignorant. Ignorance is not a bliss.Be safe than sorry. PNB and Khazanah may go bankrupt if UMNO sucks the government dry.
There are signs and symptoms that UMNO will be crippled in September. Hence preparing for the worst, PM replaced old Maybank’s CEO with a new Maybank’s CEO. The new CEO who is just on board made 3 acquisitions in 2 months. Terrific!!! There were sources which said he was a scapegoat to transfer the money out from the country.
What will happen if Anwar really take over the government in September? There will be …..continue here
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I found a great blog on value investing. The author helps you to analyse your stocks.
http://boyboycute.wordpress.com
http://valueklse.blogspot.com
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Moolah
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Posting #32: Sat Jun 21st, 2008 01:52 |
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So you don't own that blog? It'e very nice and kind of you to advertise and promote for that blog.
Anyway... this is a forum mah... so... what's your personal opinion on this issue?
Based on current business economics environment, would you or would not invest in stocks?
Care to share?
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Moolah
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Posting #33: Tue Jun 24th, 2008 13:18 |
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Hmmm.... this was published on the Edge.
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24-06-2008: Corporate earnings to take a hit this year
by Surin Murugiah
KUALA LUMPUR: The rising operational costs will impact corporate earnings negatively and squeeze margins, and could translate into lower dividends this year, analysts said.
However, established companies are unlikely to revise downwards their stated dividend policy, as it has become a corporate culture in Malaysia to pay out dividends to shareholders, they said.
CMS Asset Management Sdn Bhd chief investment officer Scott Lim said corporate earnings in all sectors would be negatively impacted due to the hike in energy costs, rising crude oil prices, and even the uncertain local political landscape.He said while companies’ earnings would be lower, any decline in dividend payout ratio would be insignificant at best.
“We do not expect downward revision in dividends unless a company has spent substantially in some acquisition exercise,” he said.
Another head of a local banked-backed research house said investors were more likely to take a cautious approach, given uncertainties in the local political arena.
He said this would be the scenario over the next three to six months as both retail and institutional investors await some degree of certainty before investing in stocks on Bursa Malaysia.
He said the effects of higher energy prices following the fuel and electricity tariff hikes would be among the factors affecting the performance of companies and hence, corporate earnings.
However, companies would at least maintain their dividend policy as it had become a culture in the country to reward investors, he said.
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So the reasoning would be like this...
If earnings would get hit... then perhaps one should understand the risk in using TTM earnings....
And if you look around... many are using ttm earnings as a yardstick, as a reasoning on why the stocks are cheap!!!!
For example... if not mistaken... some small time advisor is saying market PE is around 11x or so....
so for the prudent investor... shouldn't one want to evaluate this 'cheapness' issue? Example.. if earnings is estimated to get hit by say 20%... then... shouldn't one adjust and account for the slowdown in earnings?
Sooooo.... to invest or not to invest now?
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Moolah
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Posting #34: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 05:55 |
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Hmm... how about now?
Anyone want to invest now? Long term mah...
how? care to share ur views?
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hhc1977
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Posting #35: Mon Jul 7th, 2008 14:29 |
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hi dude,
i had almost forgot when was my last purchase in Bursa.........
Well, i think i aint no david cooperfield so i will rather let the knife hit the ground before i try to grab it....
In the meantime, too much uncertainty to sink money into Bursa.....
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Moolah
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Posting #36: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 00:49 |
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hhc1977 wrote: hi dude,
i had almost forgot when was my last purchase in Bursa.........
Well, i think i aint no david cooperfield so i will rather let the knife hit the ground before i try to grab it....
In the meantime, too much uncertainty to sink money into Bursa.....
Waaa.. pandai nya!
Make all the moola and now enjoying life!
weii.. have not started making future plans to buy meh? so money taroh mana?
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hhc1977
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Posting #37: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 01:56 |
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wei dude,
got a lot of new projects recently.
As for future, i m keeping my finger crossed.
Some fundamentally good shares are still in my waiting list. I m waiting until composite stablised first which i dont think it will for a short while.
If there is still human being in Msia, there will be still demand for certain goods and service. So, some companies will come out stronger while many will perished if indeed there is a crisis coming.....
Whenever there is crisis, there is opportunity. i m ready this round ( i was still undergraduate at 97/98).
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Moolah
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Posting #38: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 02:05 |
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LOL!!!
Waaaa.... ready and armed with cash ah? Somemore got waiting list liao! (Damn.. i have not drawn mine out yet!)..... alamak...i smell serious intense competition!!!
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Moolah
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Posting #39: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 06:26 |
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CIMb had been suggesting dividend yield stocks..
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Value in stocks with high foreign holding: CIMB
Published: 2008/07/07
Stocks such as Gamuda, Genting, Resorts World, Uchi Technologies, Media Prima, SP Setia and AirAsia have thrown up 'significant value', the research house says
CIMB Research is recommending that investors gradually pick up stocks with high foreign shareholding that have been battered of late, saying that they offer significant value.
"We view the depressed share prices of stocks with high foreign shareholding as an opportunity to accumulate positions gradually," it said in a recent report.
Stocks such as Gamuda, Genting, Resorts World, Uchi Technologies and Media Prima have thrown up "significant value", it said.
Heavy foreign selling of late has resulted in sectoral blue chips such as Gamuda, SP Setia and AirAsia having up to 50 per cent erased from their share prices.
The valuations of Genting and Resorts, for example, have dropped to levels even lower than those seen during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak a few years ago.
Gamuda, for example, offers investors a sustainable dividend yield of about 11 per cent, levels unheard of in the construction sector, CIMB Research noted.
The research house, however, is maintaining its neutral weighting and stance on Malaysia, given factors like political uncertainties, policy concerns, downside risks to corporate earnings and an overhang from the de-rating of the stock market by foreign investors.
CIMB Research believes that it could take a lot longer for foreign investors to unwind fully their exposure in Malaysia. Many have been gradually reducing their exposure here as a result of the new political environment.
"We suspect that the selling will not subside anytime soon. Hence, we only recommend gradual accumulation of positions in companies with good fundamentals."
It continues to favour sectors that show little co-relation to the domestic economic outlook, such as plantation, oil and gas, and rubber gloves.
The research house maintained its year-end target for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index at 1,290 points. Bursa Malaysia closed at 1,134.14 points last Friday.
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hhc1977
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Posting #40: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 12:46 |
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i find the report strange. the so called perceived high yield is based on former years revenue which will be a challenge to maintain at current situation.
What if those company turned into loss making company?
Does past performance really guarantee future dividen? i have serious reservation on that unless it business is recession proof...
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