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Here is a snippet of what is published on Business Times today..
CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd said in a report that it expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to remain relatively flat at between 5 per cent and 5.3 per cent in the second and third quarters, before improving to 5.5 per cent in the last quarter of 2006.
"Overall, we expect a forceful impact from the 9MP projects on the growth over the near to medium term. At least in the short term, some of the fast-track and smaller-scale projects are expected to support domestic growth," it said.
The Government announced an initial list of 880 new development projects worth RM15 billion that will be tendered out soon.
The projects include the building of schools, roads, bridges and an integrated transportation terminal as well as those involving water supply.
There is a fairly even distribution of spending allocation across the states, CIMB Securities noted.
Given that the expenditure is for smaller-scale projects, it is expected that they will have high multiplier effects and linkages to a broader segment of the economy.
The research house expects GDP growth to be sustained at 5.6 per cent next year, compared with an estimated 5.3 per cent this year, mainly as a result of the acceleration of public spending and private-sector expenditure. But export growth may be slower, it said.
With the implementation of the projects, CIMB Securities expects public investment to contribute at least 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent of next year's GDP.
Private investment is expected to benefit from the private finance initiatives and the continued inflow of foreign direct investment.
Sectors which stand to gain from the 9MP are construction, manufacturing and services, CIMB Securities said.
Welcome dycarr and kopster2. On the issue of mega projects, I think the government is trying to use Private Financing Initiatives (PFI) to fund these projects. Perhaps the objective is to ensure greater responsibilities by those companies that implement these mega projects. Personally I believe it is a great idea, but it remains to be seen on the implementation part.
For communist style planning, hhc1977, I tend to believe having a plan is better than not having a plan. Though it may be wise not to plan "too big" or "too much ahead into future", I believe the key is still like what you mentioned, implementation.
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Ah... them brokerage houses mooting the idea that pipe makers could be winners too!
Posted on today's Star Biz:
Friday July 21, 2006
Pipe makers likely 9MP winners too
By Loong Tse Min
PETALING JAYA: Smaller class 'F' contractors are the likely winners of the first list of the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) projects announced Tuesday, analysts said.
They noted that a high percentage of the projects would involve building works.
9MP to be catalyst to stock market
RENEWED hope and glee hogged the sentiments in the construction industry, long bogged down by a dearth of projects, as the much-awaited list of projects to be tendered out under the Ninth Malaysia Plan was rolled out over the week.
JOHOR BARU: Danga Bay Sdn Bhd (DBSB) expects real estate prices in Malaysia's premier integrated waterfront city project – Danga Bay – to rise significantly in the next few years. This will be buoyed by the RM12bil allocation to support development in the South Johor Economic Region under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP).
Convinced of the project's commercial viability, DBSB and the Johor government's development arm, Kumpulan Prasarana Rakyat Johor, have invested a substantial amount in the bay and its surrounding areas.
DBSB is a privately held company in which Ekovest Bhd executive vice-chairman Datuk Lim Kang Hoo is a substantial shareholder and director.
Lim is also a director in Limbongan-Ekovest Management Sdn Bhd, the project manager of Danga Bay, in which Ekovest holds a 49% stake and the Johor government 51%.
Lim said since the 9MP announcement on the south Johor development, there had been a flood of foreign investors and established developers wanting a slice of the planned mega projects in the area.
“We are in talks with several world-class developers for some of the projects,” he told StarBiz.
Lim said Limbongan-Ekovest Management, as project manager appointed by the Johor government, would assist in the development of the mega projects. They will be mostly for consulting work related to design and construction.
“We hope to get about 8% to 10% of each project's gross development value for our consultancy work under Phase 1 which is centred mainly in the bay area,” he said.
The project management company welcomed international and established developers to bid for the mega projects, he added.
“We want Danga Bay to be internationally recognised and are prepared to work with the best developers in the world to make the bay a favoured destination for business and leisure.”
Lim said Phase 1 would have over 15 mega projects worth RM5bil to be completed within five to six years.
It will have a financial and commercial hub, hotels, and residential properties comprising apartments, condominiums, villas, water chalets and houses.
Lim said DBSB saw the potential of the bay six years ago and had kick-started much of the initial commercial and retailing developments seen today, which included several residential suites, a hotel and restaurants. It had also cleaned up the waterfront.
“DBSB has shown its commitment to the development of Danga Bay, which is why the Johor government has entrusted us, via Limbongan-Ekovest Management, to assist with future project developments,” he said.
Lim said Danga Bay, spread over 1,850 acres with about 25km of waterfront, was a perfect setting that could be turned into a commercial zone to rival Singapore's development across the Johor Straits and Tebrau Straits, and attract the island's residents to invest in the bay.
“Currently, we are looking at property projects valued at RM400 per sq ft in Danga Bay, which is still very cheap compared with property projects in Singapore,” said Lim, noting that property developments in Sentosa Island were now valued at S$1,007 per sq ft.
Lim said it could take a further 10 to 15 years to develop subsequent phases in the outer bay.
“The future development of these areas hinges on their potential commercial viability and investor interest,” he said.
On Ekovest's interest, Lim said besides projects in Johor, the infrastructure company had bid for projects in east and west Malaysia as well. However, he declined to elaborate.
On talk that other mega projects like the YTL group's proposal for a RM5bil bullet train project linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore could further fuel the prospects of Danga Bay, Lim said: “It would be good for Johor and we hope it happens.”
As widely expected, GAMUDA announced it has secured the RM640 Bahrain bridge project a couple of days ago. With this, it looks like GAMUDA would be in for re-rating soon with projected earnings FY07 would be much higher that the current weak FY06.
Now, what is next ? The finalisation of the NT1Laos power project.
All I can say is interest will pick up soon on GAMUDA with more news trickling in....
Revival of Double tracking ?? Anyone guess?
State Transfer ???
More potential Middle EAst projects ?? Gamuda has already bidded close to RM5billion worth of jobs ???
What say u ??
dycarr wrote: Personally, I think it is quite obvious the government's focus in on small to medium sized projects. Yesterday with the announcement of the projects, we can see that bulk of funds are into the building of schools, roads, etc mostly for the rural areas. Not hint of any mega projects like the super duper train from KL to Singapore, Penang monorail and the Pahang Selangor Interstate water transfer.
However, being involved in the local consutrction sector, I tend to like GAMUDA. Its current price has been bashed down due to poor earnings (after more than 8 years of continous growth). No mega projects means no meat for this construction giant but I believe the management is very optimistic this year and if you follow the management's guidance, they will secure at least a couple sizeable jobs this year. My guess would be the RM600million road project in the middle east which GAMUDA is the lowest bid, the finalisation of agreement of the RM3 billion LAOS NT1 etc.
The current price reflects the weak financial results this financial year but I believe GAMUDA would be able to resume its growth from next year onwards. Lets wait and see.
Hi,
Hope you do not mind but I have merged your topic with the existing topic.
More good news on GAMUDA !!! Just announced the following :
Type
: Announcement
Subject
: Nam Theun 1 Hydroelectric Power Project ("NT1 Project") in the Lao's People's Democratic Republic ("Lao PDR")
Contents :
Further to our announcements of 26 May 2004 and 29 November 2004, Gamuda Berhad ("Gamuda") is pleased to announce that by its letter dated 24th August 2006, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand ("EGAT") has accepted the proposal from Gamuda and Electricity Generating Public Company Limited ("EGCO") in respect of the NT1 Project.
With EGAT's acceptance of the proposal, Gamuda and EGCO will now proceed to finalize all the relevant agreements pertaining to the NT1 Project, including the Concession Agreement with the Government of the Lao PDR ("GOL") and the Power Purchase Agreement with EGAT.
The NT1 Project will have a capacity of approximately 523MW. Project cost is estimated at US$680 million, to be funded using project financing and equity. Gamuda will be the EPC Contractor and construction is expected to commence by the end of 2006.
The NT1 Project is not expected to have any effect on the issued and paid-up capital of Gamuda.
The earnings from the construction of the NT1 Project and the future supply of electricity to EGAT are expected to enhance the future earnings of the Gamuda Group.
Gamuda's order book almost doubles to RM5b with Lao power project
Gamuda Bhd's order book will almost double to RM5 billion from RM2.6 billion following the acceptance by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) of its consortium's proposed Lao hydropower supply project.
Gamuda has a 40% stake in the consortium that will undertake the US$680 million (RM2.5 billion) power project. The other members are Electricity Generating Public Company Ltd and the government of Laos.
The securing of the project follows the recent award of the RM640 million Sitra Causeway Bridges project in Bahrain. Gamuda said the group continues to bid actively for new projects in the Gulf States, India and Indochina.
Gamuda expects to finalise and sign a tariff memorandum of understanding with EGAT, which sets out the tariff and main operating terms, by the end of next month.
In a statement on Aug 29, Gamuda's senior group general manager of business development and corporate finance, Wong Mun Keong said following that, the consortium could start to seek project financing.
He said simultaneously, negotiations for the detailed power purchase agreement (PPA) with EGAT and the concession agreement (CA) with the government of Laos would proceed and most likely be completed by the first quarter of next year.
“We expect the PPA and CA to be signed by mid-2007. Financing has been lined up with Thai banks. The Thai and Malaysian EXIM banks have also expressed great interest in funding this Asean cross-border project.”
He said Gamuda, as the main engineering, procurement and commissioning contractor for the 523MW project, would start physical works comprising access roads and site preparation, in October 2006.
“Completion is scheduled for mid 2012, in time for the impoundment of the dam during the wet season and full commercial sales to EGAT beginning 2013,” said Wong.
