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random
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Posting #11: Thu Sep 6th, 2007 16:07 |
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Dear stockraider1,
In response to your comments:
1)Competition
What is the key competitive advantage of NCB agst Westport which allow them to retain its customers ?
It is said Northport offers the better service although I cannot say for sure. But I do know Westports offers perks and cheaper rates in order to draw clients. That said ships could dock in either ports in case of congestions or other problems.
2)Margin
a)It is maintaining at healthy level bcos there is no price to gain mkt share.
I'm not too sure on your comment here. But ports do have a nice fat margin on their revenue.
b)But then NCB is losing mkt share ie Growth of 4% v Economy 6% v Wessport 11%.
As of now, Westports control about 60% of the market share. But the volume of Port Klang itself is actually growing.
3)There will be increasing their capex going fwd which will drain some of their cash but whether this will generate higher return need to be assessed.
Actually NCB has already spent almost 2 bil in capex without taking up too much of a loan. Their cashflow is healthy with 200+ mil generated from operating activities. For this kind of infrastructure business there is always the need to spend capex to upgrade facilities.
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stockraider1
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Posting #12: Fri Sep 7th, 2007 05:12 |
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Random,
Competition
NCB has its niche in its bulk cargo comprises of Southport in which westport do not handle.
Westport are very well ahead in terms of container transhipment and on the direct import and export using container they are slightly ahead agst NCB.
Westport strength is its efficiency(own by Hutchison Whampoa Li Ka Shing), as it is ranked one of the most efficient ports in the world and basing on this strength it has overtaken NCB which has close to 100 yrs history within 10 yrs.
Going fwd NCB operations has also improved but it will be difficult to take mkt share from Westport but if there is no price war NCB will still make good margin with some niche business such as bulk petroleum and some share of containers, also MISC the subsidiary of Petronas own 20% of NCB.Basing on Msia Growth rate of 6% p.a.
Reason initiative by NCB is its Halal Hub and the based for import and export of CBU motor vehicle.
On capex Westport plan to spend about Rm 800m for the next 5 yrs whereas NCB is spending on the average about Rm 100m p.a.Basing on operating cashflow of Rm 200m this leave a free cashflow of Rm 100m or about Rm 0.22 per share.
Thus the company should still be able to msaintain dividend of between Rm 0.15 to Rm 0.20 per share while still keeping its cash of Rm 1.20 per share intact.
Based on this scenario there is a high chance of special dividend bcos the cash balance will continue to grow every year.
NCB still can grow 4% to 5% p.a.
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random
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Posting #13: Tue Oct 9th, 2007 05:50 |
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For ports, normally importers are given 5 days free storage in order to have enough time to take out their containers. Failing which importers will be charged a storage fee. This contributes to the port revenue significantly.
Westports has recently declared that the free storage will be reduced from 5 days to 3 days. Northport is expected to follow suit
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stockraider1
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Posting #14: Tue Oct 9th, 2007 06:18 |
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This development is will be positive for ports revenue it indicate improve pricing power.
Latest development in ports valuation it appear that there is some rerating on ports such as
1)Suria
2)Biport
This should augur well for NCB over the medium term
With privatization of MIDF by PNB it seems that the list of ｇｏｏｄ undervalue counters in PNB stable is declining rapidly.
This will enhance NCB for potential future privatizations as with superior cashflow and strong balance sheet it is financially very tempting.
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random
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Posting #15: Tue Oct 9th, 2007 06:21 |
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Ah yes.. it would be good for all ports in general.. as sooner or later all of them will follow suit
But it would be bad for importers and possibly add pressure to hauliers as they would have less time to plan their movements
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stockraider1
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Posting #16: Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 06:36 |
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NCB latest qtr earnings has registered an increase of 53% to Rm 38.8m.However the turnover reported modest growth of 8%.
The Group latest qtr Eps is Rm 0.08 and it is anticipated the annualized eps show be around Rm 0.29 given this stock PE 10.
The group nta is Rm 3.60 per share and net cash holding had increase to Rm 1.32 per share.
Overall the Group had achieved good performance in its P&L,cashflow and Balance Sheet and had achieved all the internal kpi targets todate .Hence dividend of Rm 0.20 per share can be maintained
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random
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Posting #17: Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 06:50 |
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Kkakaka.. Stockraider1 you beat me to the update...
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stockraider1
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Posting #18: Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 07:50 |
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Sorry i thought u have ommitted it !
Anyway certainly u will have something more to add ?
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random
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Posting #19: Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 11:27 |
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Haha I have not been checking on it.. Been buse looking elsewhere... 
Will post updates soon..
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random
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Posting #20: Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 06:36 |
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FY07 FY06
Revenue 885.5mil 834.0mil
Net Profit 151.3mil 116.1mil
EPS 32.2sen 24.7sen
Final dividend 12sen less tax
Special dividend 8sen less tax
Total dividend for the year = 25sen
DY (based on share price RM3.00) = 8.3 %
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