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tanhin
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Posting #11: Wed Sep 26th, 2007 11:08 |
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| oh,noted too, how come I missed that posting?not a loyal fans!
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Moolah
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Posting #12: Thu Sep 27th, 2007 02:41 |
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LOL!
That posting is not important lah.
See most important, in my opinion, most are taught that the liquidity of the share and how thinly the share trades in the market, matters NOT to the prudent investor.
Yes, that's so very true.
However, sadly no one tells about the flip side.
And the flip side here is what if the investment reasoning is no longer valid?
See, for me, the statement is so true if the stock remains good. But if the stock turns bad, surely the liquidity issue does matter!
The lack of liquity in the traded share will make it a godzilla sized task for the investor to dispose their shares.
And not forgetting, when there is no liquidity, usually the spread between the buy/sell bids is usually very wide. And due to the wide spread, one's exit usually could end up larger than one would have liked!
rgds
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stockraider1
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Posting #13: Thu Sep 27th, 2007 06:07 |
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1)If we want to find huge discount in intrinsic value from the stock quotes, it is very much easier to find it from thinly traded stocks compare with active stocks.This thinly traded stock are very good for accumulation for investors that believe in long term returns (Graham & Buffet investment philosophy).
2)Those who bought active stocks please be aware generally it is active, bcos there is a sponsor who try to support the price with objective of distributing the share to other interested party at higher price.It is at this stage the share has most publicity and momentum in terms of price gain.Theoretically/generally the margin of safety of an active stocks is less than a thinly traded stocks.
2)For company that invest in stocks we should be subjective and judge the company track records on own merits.Those companies that successfully invest in share comprises of PPB Group, Selangor Prop and Keck Seng.As for Pintaras, i see their records as quite reasonable,as there actually has gone thru difficult time as well and to come ahead !
3)Overall with a company that can build up cash position so strongly despite also investing some money in stocks,i would say this company has shown excellent performance and value, very difficult to find to find equivalent when we do stock selection in Bursa !
4)On the issue of investment in active stocks, bcos of afraid of mistake i think this should more applicable to Traders applying TA than a Fundamental investors.A fundamental investors invest based on fundamental, prospect and discount or bargain value whreas the activity of the stocks is not essential.
Although investors do make mistake but the protection more towards margin of safety in terms of prudent stock selection, than stock activity.An active stock can also dried up !
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Moolah
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Posting #14: Fri Sep 28th, 2007 03:44 |
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The IV strikes again. Intrinsic value yet again. Sounds so easy.
Care to share what's your intrinsic value for Pintaras?
Secondly, everyone makes investment mistake (either voluntary or in-voluntary). So question that begs to be asks, when the mistake(s) are made, doesn't it make sense to acknowledge and confront the mistake?
Yes?
Or would one always prefer the self-indulgence of ignoring that they can't make no mistakes?
I wonder.
Anyway I do know that I CAN make mistakes.
So in the stock market, when I attempt to correct my mistake(s), I certainly do not want to see my mistake(s) being punished more due to the lack of liquidity and neither do I want to be caught in a scenerio where there exits a huge wide spread in the buy/sell bid bids.
Yeah, of course, it's always so easy to say, that the initial buying reasoning is simply paramount for one success but let me say again, in regardless of high great our investment reasoning is, we are but human. And human unfortunately do err.
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stockraider1
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Posting #15: Fri Sep 28th, 2007 06:09 |
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Intrinsic value of Pintaras Jaya ?
EPS Rm 0.30,Dividend Rm 0.10, NTA per share Rm 1.90 and cash equivalent per share Rm 0.80.
Current share price Rm 1.90
Now assuming invest at Rm 1.90
Net cash Rm 0.80
Net exposure Rm 1.10
EPS Rm 0.30
PE 3.3x
Dividend yield 5.2% Benchmark Fixed deposit 4%p.a.
PE ratio of Construction company about 10 to 14 times.
Non of the construction company is cash rich other than Ahmad Zaki but trading at PE 13.
Assuming we are willing to accept PE of 6 time half of AZRB the underlying assets of Pintaras should be (PE 6 x EPS Rm 0.30) plus cash Rm 0.80 = Rm 2.60.At this level it is still at a discount to Ahmad Zaki but say u compare to YTL, IJM,Ekovest,Gamuda,WCT,Muhibbah some even more than PE 20 the discount of Pintaras is even more absurb !
I acknowledge sometime fundamental analysis may also make mistake, but as Warren/Graham says when the margin of safety is large with adequate analysis this should give enough protection.
U cannot find a construction much more undervalue like Pintaras !
When we invest looking into stock activity we are actually giving away part of the basic advantage of a fundamental investor !
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Moolah
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Posting #16: Fri Sep 28th, 2007 06:15 |
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Hmm... lot's of assuming in ur calculations.
Anyway... many thanks for sharing ur IV calculations.
Now I would assume that you are a proud shareholder.
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Moolah
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Posting #17: Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 13:19 |
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here's a quick summary of numbers
Pintaras Jaya Bhd (9598.KU) - Malaysia
1st quarter ended Sep. 30:
Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
2007 2006
Revenue MYR34,340,000 MYR40,042,000
Pretax Profit 10,081,000 9,771,000
Net Profit 7,950,000 7,368,000
Earnings Per Share 9.90 Sen 9.20 Sen
Dividend Omitted Omitted |
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random
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Posting #18: Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 03:09 |
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Not much earnings growth to be seen now, eh? 
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Moolah
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Posting #19: Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 03:49 |
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Review of Quarterly Earnings
1. Earnings
PTaras announced an earnings of 7.850 million out of a sales revenue of 34.340 million.
Now if I wanted to gauge the earnings.. and I have the stock, surely, I cannot be lazy. I have to look at the most recent 6 quarterly earnings. (7 if you include the one yesterday)(this one, not set rule and it depends on each individual style)
[color=#0066cc NXlLb="0" Mj_Nc="1"]Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2007
[color=#0066cc NXlLb="0" Mj_Nc="1"]Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2007
[color=#0066cc NXlLb="0" Mj_Nc="1"]Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2006
[color=#0066cc NXlLb="0" Mj_Nc="1"]Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2006
[color=#0066cc NXlLb="0" Mj_Nc="1"]Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2006
[color=#0066cc NXlLb="0" Mj_Nc="1"]Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2006
Then I make a simple table..
Sales Earnings
06 Q1 28.432 2.923
06 Q2 23.902 3.257
06 Q3 18.133 2.716
06 Q4 25.995 1.622
07 Q1 40.042 7.368
07 Q2 40.658 6.715
07 Q3 36.244 4.719
07 Q4 30.492 5.287
08 Q1 34.340 7.950 |
There are so many ways to scrutnise numbers.
a) Firstly Q-Q, earnings improved a lot. 07 Q4 earnings only 5.287. Which means earnings increased by a whopping 2.663 million. (that's a 50% increase! would you call it growth? )
Now if i wanted to trumpet this stock loud-loud, i could easily make it sexy by proclaiming Q-Q earnings increased by a whopping 50%!
 However... i am not here to sell stocks, am i?
b) Year to year comparison,
Last year Q1, Ptaras managed 7.368. This year it did marginally better to 7.950 or an increase of 0.582 million (7%)
Is there seasonal strength in Q1 numbers? Well if you look at the above table, fy 2006 Q1, PTaras did only 2.923. And if you compare, fy 2006 numbers, its fy 2006 Q1 earnings was not the strongest. However, if you compare fy 2007 numbers, Q1 was its strongest. Would this be the same trend this year? I dunno.
c) ttm numbers.
trailing twelve months earnings indicates a sales revenue of 141.734 million and earnings of 24.671 million (17.4%)
So how do these trailing numbers fair?
Let's compare it with the historical earnings posted on the first page.
So how?
Here's the crucial part.
In review of investment, we always have to be honest with ourselves. Let's not look for excuses why the stock is NOT performing. Meaning to say, if it's good, we have to say it's good but if it's poor, we have to acknowledge that it's poor.
So, do you like what you see?
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Moolah
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Posting #20: Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 04:00 |
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Breakdown of Earnings.
Let's look at the table posted in the first page again.
And here is the breakdown for its recent quarter.
Piling Manu Others
07 Q1 7.139 1.479 -0.009 |
How is the piling and manufacturing sector performing?
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