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Moolah
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Posting #1: Tue Jun 17th, 2008 13:21 |
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Business Times - 17 Jun 2008
S'pore May exports fall unexpected 9.8%
SINGAPORE - Singapore's May non-oil exports unexpectedly fell 9.8 per cent after seasonal adjustments from April, the sharpest fall since January 2006, providing new evidence that a global slowdown may be weighing on Asian exports.
May's fall amid weaker annual electronics and drugs shipments compared with market expectations for a 1.1 per cent rise, and followed a 1.6 per cent gain in April when shipments unexpectedly rose.
Non-oil exports in May fell 10.5 per cent from a year earlier to $12.4 billion (US$9.0 billion), trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement. That compared with a revised 5.3 per cent rise in April, and with a median forecast in a Reuters poll for an annual rise of 1.9 per cent.
The Singapore economy is heavily dependent on trade, and non-oil domestic exports were worth about 70 per cent of the republic's gross domestic product last year.
Economists had expected monthly exports in May to rise slightly as higher petrochemical and drug shipments offset persistent weakness in electronic goods.
May's electronics shipments fell 8.5 per cent from a year ago while drugs exports dropped 48.5 per cent in the same period. Petrochemicals slipped 2.6 per cent.
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports, which comprise goods that have been manufactured in Singapore or undergone further processing, include mobile phones, medical instruments, and active ingredients for some blockbuster drugs. -- REUTERS
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Moolah
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Posting #2: Tue Jul 1st, 2008 14:45 |
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Business Times - 01 Jul 2008
Market Capitalisation
H1 slump wipes $120b off market cap
SGX the biggest loser in dollar terms, down $6.9b to $7.37b
By LYNETTE KHOO
(SINGAPORE) It is a sea of red as a slate of listed companies took a battering from the volatile market and chalked up falls in market value as the year hits half-time.
Since January, the market slump has sliced $120.4 billion or some 15 per cent from the total market capitalisation of the Singapore bourse to $677.4 billion.
Yesterday, the benchmark Straits Times Index shed another 8.37 points to 2,947.54, bringing its losses to 15 per cent over the first half of this year.
'We probably have come to a stage when trading turnover is pretty low,' said UOB KayHian dealing director Chan Tuck Sing. 'In the second half, if we do see some improvement in global economic statistics and if commodity prices start to retreat, we will see more activity in equities.'
In the second quarter, average traded volume was more than halved from a year ago to about 1.5 billion, and slid some 13 per cent from a quarter ago.
Reflecting the declining trading volumes and values, the stock of Singapore Exchange - the biggest loser in absolute dollar terms - saw some $6.91 billion being wiped off its market value since the beginning of the year to $7.37 billion at end-June.
The second biggest loser was Singapore Telecommunications, which lost $6 billion of its market value to $57.6 billion. Cosco Corp, which was troubled by contract concerns after its cancellation of a US$202 million project in April, saw its market value fall by some 44.6 per cent to $7.17 billion.
Other Singapore-listed Chinese shares or S-shares mostly chalked up double-digit declines in market values in the first half of this year, hurt by the major sell-off in the mainland Chinese markets as well as concerns over rising costs.
Bucking the trend, Noble Group topped the gainers in dollar terms, with its market value growing by $1.5 billion or 23.7 per cent to $7.8 billion, possibly riding on the commodity story. The dry bulk carrier saw tonnage volume rise 56 per cent and net profit quadruple to a record US$167 million in the first quarter.
Brokers noted that while stocks may have turned less expensive, market risks have become greater than the perceived value, prompting investors to stay on the sidelines.
'The market is telling us that the risks are still higher than what the growth potential these companies can offer,' said a local broker.
In terms of share price, much movements have been a result of corporate activity, dealers noted.
For instance, Straits Trading's share price surged on the back of a takeover battle between Tecity and OCBC's Lee family that eventually saw the former as the new controlling shareholder.
Shares of Chinese steel maker Delong Holdings - which were stoked by the offer by UK-listed Evraz Group SA in February to acquire up to a 51.05 per cent stake for $3.9459 a share - jumped from $2.04 at end-December to $3.17.
Property counters City Developments and Guoco- land took major losses in their share prices in the year to date, losing their shine amid the softness in the residential market.
Mr Chan of UOB KayHian observed that stocks that have proved more resilient than the broader market have been blue chips or illiquid stocks that are seeing less volatility simply because of their low trading volumes.
'Investors are switching into quality,' he said. Institutional investors or funds that stay invested in the market have helped create trading activities for the blue chips, he added. Retail investors who are mainly interested in second-liners and S-shares have been sidelined by market volatility.'
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) which offer direct exposure to the commodities boom have also seen a surge in share prices. Gold 10US$, formerly known as StreetTracks Gold Shares, and Lyxor Commodities CRB Fund 10 have jumped 16.4 per cent and 50 per cent respectively so far this year.
'The prices are moving as a reflection of the underlying but they are still traded at a discount,' Mr Chan said. The Gold 10US$ is currently traded at a discount to the spot market.
Analysts told BT that further downside in the stockmarket is probably to be expected given the persisting concerns over the global economy and inflationary outlook.
Market sentiment is likely to remain negative in the second half as corporate earnings 'start to mirror the harsh impact of inflation,' said Kim Eng regional head of research Stephanie Wong.
But although it is unclear if the market has hit bottom, analysts say this need not stop investors with a longer-term view to go bottom fishing selectively.
'As Singapore is structurally still healthy, we expect longer-term investors to continue to invest in Singapore and investors with a longer-term investment time frame should use this uncertain period to buy into some of the key proxy plays into the Singapore economy,' said Carmen Lee, research head at OCBC Investment Bank.
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MooFassa
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Posting #3: Fri Nov 7th, 2008 12:32 |
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Long-term prospect 'fabulous', but 2009 looks gloomy
British Chamber spokesman paints the big picture for Singapore
By GENEVIEVE CUA
THE long-term outlook for Singapore is 'fabulous' but 2009 is likely to be a miserable year economically, said Roman Scott, economic spokesman for the British Chamber of Commerce.
In a luncheon presentation yesterday, Mr Scott painted a bleak picture of global growth, but reiterated his confidence that Asia will bounce back stronger.
'I remain a long-term secular Asian bull. In the mid- to long term, (the crisis) accelerates the secular shift of economies towards Asia,' he said. While open and export oriented economies such as Singapore will be hit hard, domestic consumption in countries such as China is expected to provide a fresh engine of growth.
'Singapore is very very vulnerable; it's a canary in a coal mine. It will be the first to pick itself up when things get better . . . The Singapore story is fundamentally intact and will be fabulous in 2015.'
Still, Asian economic data for the third and fourth quarter this year is expected to be weak. 'Asian banks may hold very little of the sub-prime toxic debt, but the resultant damage to the interbank and those human things - trust and credibility - that are essential ingredients of the banking system, has affected Asia equally.'
On the global economy, he said IMF forecasts have been consistently over-optimistic in downturns and pessimistic in upturns. IMF forecast for 2009 has been revised downwards to 3 per cent, the slowest pace since 2002.
Mr Scott believes that global growth will actually slip to a 'recessionary' level of 2 per cent. 'The only question that remains is for how long this will last. Given my comments on why systemic banking crises leave the fires burning far longer than the standard cyclical recession, a two-year period is a minimum, not a maximum, and that would be lucky,' he wrote in a paper.
Asia is expected to bounce back earlier, within 18 months.
A banking crisis, he maintains, differs markedly from normal cyclical recessions. 'This is a heart attack, not a fall, and hearts are difficult to get started again . . . This is what happens when the trust that underpins the system disappears and credit is severely restricted.'
For businesses, he said plans should be stress tested against two to three scenarios. 'Smaller enterprises will be particularly vulnerable and should plan cash flow to ensure that a year's requirements for cash is available, and if not it is time to liquidate assets to get to that point.'
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