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PeG
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Posting #21: Tue Feb 13th, 2007 05:45 |
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| Through brokers, prophet.
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DISCLAIMER: I AM ALWAYS WRONG.
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Moolah
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Posting #22: Tue Feb 13th, 2007 06:30 |
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PeG,
Go get some kijang la..
:s18:
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madviruz
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Posting #23: Tue Feb 13th, 2007 06:41 |
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I trade in Singapore.
Used to do it before 2001 with an Oz brokerage.
Capital gains in Oz are taxed - ramifications a plenty.
Even their dividens are taxed higher unlike singapore or here.
But their dividen yeilds are superior as PeG will testify.
Both online and telephone instructions acceptable and mobile sms to inform status of trade available.
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madviruz
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PeG
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Posting #24: Tue Feb 13th, 2007 07:07 |
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madviruz wrote: I trade in Singapore.
Used to do it before 2001 with an Oz brokerage.
Capital gains in Oz are taxed - ramifications a plenty.
Even their dividens are taxed higher unlike singapore or here.
But their dividen yeilds are superior as PeG will testify.
Both online and telephone instructions acceptable and mobile sms to inform status of trade available.
Aaaah, Yes, yes and yes.
Agreed to all. :s18:
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DISCLAIMER: I AM ALWAYS WRONG.
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PeG
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Posting #25: Tue Feb 13th, 2007 07:13 |
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Moolah wrote: PeG,
Go get some kijang la..
:s18:
I think my investment in gold has hit my limit hor. :s3:
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DISCLAIMER: I AM ALWAYS WRONG.
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LAL
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Posting #26: Tue Feb 13th, 2007 11:22 |
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I wanna easy way out by going into a gold ETF - much easier to trade and likely cheaper. No need to hold too many coins (or bars), attractive as they are. Too, you never know when an unauthorised person comes a calling at your place, touch wood.
Are Kijang's supposed to come with a cert? The Maples and Aussie nuggets do. The half ounce Kijang I got was simply placed in a little BNM carboard piece with no cert.
Know zilch about mining and mining companies hence can't even make a wild guess on their valuations. Preferably, invest in gold via funds managed by ex-mining engineers or who know the industry inside out. I think First State Investments has such a fund but it's not pure gold stocks or even pure metals.
Oh yeh, and I'll stick no more than 5-7% of total portfolio in gold, as great an asset as it is in this cycle. But I'll watch prices like a hawk when/if they skyrocket and sell if need be. Wouldn't want to be left holding the bag like goldbugs did back in 1980 to early 2000s. But if you want to pass down some worthwhile asset, apart from property, to your descendants 75-100 years or more into the future, sure gold would make a super very long term holding.
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prophet
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Posting #27: Wed Feb 14th, 2007 02:50 |
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The Dollar-Gold Relationship
By Steve Saville  
February 13, 2007
http://www.speculative-investor.com
Below is an extract from commentary originally posted at http://www.speculative-investor.com on 8th February 2007.
Anyone who follows the gold and currency markets closely will realise that the US$ gold price and the Dollar Index generally trend in opposite directions; or, to put it another way, that the US$ gold price and the Swiss Franc generally trend in the same direction. This reciprocal relationship between gold and the dollar is often not evident on a daily or weekly basis, but is almost always evident during periods of 12 months or longer.
The reason that gold and the dollar generally trend in opposite directions is that in one respect gold is just another currency. It is no longer money in the true meaning of the word, but it tends to trade as if it were. As a result, when the dollar weakens on the foreign exchange market over an extended period then the US$ gold price will generally rise during the same period; and when the dollar strengthens over many months the US$ gold price will usually fall. There are, of course, leads and lags and there's no reason to expect that percentage changes in one will be accompanied by equal-and-opposite percentage changes in the other, but when charts of the dollar and gold are compared it quickly becomes apparent that the two have been inversely correlated since the floating -- some would say sinking -- currency system came into being in the early 1970s.
In discussing the dollar-gold relationship in the above paragraphs we used the words "generally", "usually" and "tend" because over the decades there have been a few periods when gold and the dollar have NOT trended in opposite directions. One such period occurred between May and November of 2005, prompting many gold bulls to proclaim that gold had de-coupled from the dollar. However, this proved to be just a 6-month aberration within a 10-year period during which the traditional relationship was very strong.
Another period during which the traditional inverse relationship broke down was May through to December of 1993. As illustrated by the following chart, gold and the Dollar Index had a strong positive correlation during the aforementioned period.
The most pronounced divergence of all from the traditional gold-dollar relationship occurred during 1978-1980 and is clearly evident on the following chart comparison of the US$ gold price and the Swiss Franc (the SF/US$ exchange rate). The chart shows that the best gold rally of the past 100 years -- a rally that took the gold price from $200/oz to $800/oz in the space of just 14 months -- occurred while the US$ traded sideways relative to the Swiss Franc. In this case, gold was not driven upward by weakness in the US$ relative to other paper currencies, but, instead, by fears that the world's monetary system was coming apart at the seams. There was a mass exodus from all paper currencies and one of the main beneficiaries was the substance that had invariably been chosen by the market to perform the role of money during those historical periods when it had been free to choose.
We suspect that gold's best gains during the current secular bull market will ultimately come in response to the same sorts of fears that led to the dramatic 1978-1980 price surge. In any case, the point we really wanted to make is that gold never actually de-couples from the currency market because the investment demand for gold -- the only thing that really matters as far as gold's intermediate- and long-term price trends are concerned -- is inexorably linked to what's happening to the official currencies. Most of the time gold responds to trends in the dollar's foreign exchange value, but there are also times when it responds to changes in the general level of confidence in paper money regardless of whether the US$ happens to be a relatively weak or a relatively strong currency.
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prophet
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Posting #28: Thu Feb 15th, 2007 01:09 |
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prophet
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Posting #29: Thu Feb 15th, 2007 01:11 |
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Timing the Gold Bull - The Train is About to Leave the Station
By goldguru
Timing is everything and now is the time to be positioned in gold, silver and energy. We are about witness the largest upleg of the gold bull, wave III, which will make the gains of the dotcom boom seem like minor blips on the radar. An outstanding statement no doubt, but the bullish indicators are all lighting up and we are forecasting some fireworks on the horizon.
Supply & Demand Creating Upward Price Pressure
First, there is news that several new gold ETF’s will be launched in India this month. With the popularity and appreciation for gold in India, we have no doubt that the ETFs will receive a warm welcome. As buyers take advantage of this new and easier investment medium, large amounts of gold will be removed from the open markets. Exactly how much remains to be seen, but considering the population of India, their improving economic conditions (i.e. more capital and discretionary income available for investment) and love for shiny metals, we are anticipating significant upward pressure on the price of gold.
In other news, the EuroNext trading platform in Europe is opening futures and commodities trading in several sectors, including precious metals. This will increase the awareness, availability and investment options for precious metals across Europe. Any investment generating new demand and facing declining supply, is one in which I’d like to have an early position.
But wait, that’s not all! Act now and you also get…
The Russian Central Bank announcing changes to their FX Basket, moving the euro component to 45 cents and dollars to 55 cents… They have been discussing such a move for a while and are amongst a growing list of countries diversifying their foreign reserves away from US dollars. Bad for the greenback - good for gold.
Plus a free gift…
Total investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust (ETF: GLD) setting new highs as it reaches towards $10 billion. The fund began trading in November 2004, giving investors a more convenient way to own the physical metal. Along with the iShares Silver Trust (ETF: SLV), these new investment platforms have served to remove massive amounts of physical gold and silver from the market, thus adding to the upward pressure on prices.
Technicals Forecast Big Move Up
For the past 10 months, the price chart for gold has been compressing (making lower highs and higher lows). Think of it as a spring, which has been pushed continually tighter and is now coiled and loaded with high levels of potential energy. When the spring finally releases, the floodgates will be let loose and the price will explode upwards.
The gold price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and both of these averages are trending upwards. We are in the midst of a rally that typically follows the golden crossover (50-day moving average crossing through 200-day moving average) and it is our opinion that the rally is just getting started. If gold can hold above $650 a few more days, we are set for a major move back towards $720. There is literally no resistance between these two points. We may see some brief profit-taking just above $700, but it will be short and sweet. Concurrently, we expect the HUI to have a quick ride back towards the 400 mark, at first trailing the advance of the metal, but quickly leapfrogging and taking the lead. The HUI needs to break through resistance at 355 in order to confirm the current upleg as wave III of the gold bull.
While gold above $720 will be a welcomed event, we are still sticking to our forecast for gold reaching above the $1,000 mark sometime in 2007. Tall order? One needs only remember that gold today would be priced near $2,000 per ounce if it were adjusted for inflation. And although we view it as an incredibly foolish move, we are fully expecting some type of military confrontation with Iran before Bush slithers out of office. Fool me once, shame on… The price of both gold and oil will go vertical on any such news.
They say it is a fool’s game trying to time the bull market in gold. While we agree with this philosophy and maintain a core position through the ups and downs, we have been able to substantially increase our returns by following that silly rule about buying low and selling high. Good luck and happy investing.
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InvestorGila
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Posting #30: Sat Jul 21st, 2007 02:57 |
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Is it gold and gold shares' time to rise and shine? Of course we all wish we had a definitive answer, but we'll just have to see how it all plays out. To be honest, I still maintain a favorable long-term outlook for some very simple reasons. First, I’m convinced inflation will be an important thematic issue ahead, with implications for all investment decisions. I’m talking over a period of years here, not weeks or months. Secondly, I’m of the opinion that the melt down in sub prime and Alt-A mortgage paper will be a much bigger issue than market participants believe at the current time, ultimately leading to the macro repricing upward of risk in the credit markets over time. Both of these themes, if they are even close to being correct, suggest there will be upward pressure on longer-term interest rates stateside over time. And lastly, almost a week doesn't pass these days when yet another global sovereign entity declares its intention to "diversify" away from holding too many US dollars as part of their total reserve holdings. Again, trying to keep it very simple, this all speaks favorably for gold as a global asset class. As for short-term wiggles and jiggles in the price of the metal and the stocks that represent them, I plead guilty as to not having much of a clue
more... >>>> Rise and Shine?
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